If you’re wondering about the upcoming winter, we’ll be dominated by a moderate LaNina pattern. This weather scenario is typified by a jet stream diving southeastward over the eastern half of the United States. Thus, the storm track generally remains to our north.

This has two effects:  1) It steers most of the stronger low-pressure areas away from us, keeping it drier than average, and 2) It generally makes for above normal temperatures.

 You might ask, “is this because of global warming?”. Hardly. Global warming is a long-term climate change over a span of many years; a single cold or warm season means nothing. A trend of warmer temperatures has certainly been observed since about 1980.

Nevertheless, the rationale for my forecast of a fairly warm and dry winter has nothing to do with global warming…and everything to do with LaNina.

One other feature during LaNina years is of note. Although the winter as a whole should be milder than average, there are often one or two very cold arctic outbreaks that punctuate this regime. The winter of 1989-1990 is a good example of this.  While that winter as a whole was quite mild, we had a “doozie” of a cold spell right around Christmas, when record lows were set. It was also a very dry winter.

 As always, time will tell…but that’s my best guess as of November 5^th, 2007.

If you have a question, please contact me at weather@kxii.com.

Take Care,

Steve LaNore

Chief Meteorologist