August 13: UPDATE

No changes to previous thinking. A rainy weekend is quite likely.

In fact, a heavy rain scenario seems to be taking shape: rainfall totals are likely to range from 2-4" over our area.

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August 12: UPDATE

Things are coming together about as expected. While the forecast will no doubt require some fine tuning, weekend rainfall is quite likely...some perhaps heavy. However, I have not gone "gangbusters" on rain chances since it is still three days away. If the indications remain consistent with Wednesday's computer output, I will boost percentages quite a bit. Look for a blog update Wednesday evening.

======================Complete Discussion==========================

August 11, 2008

All three computer models have been advertising the development of a VERY rare pattern for mid-August. They are pointing to this event again today, so my confidence is increasing that below normal temperatures with additional rain chances lie ahead for this weekend.

During a typical early to mid August, the upper-level high pressure (such as the one which brought near-record heat during the last week of July and the first few days of August to Texoma) will reach its maximum intensity and size nationwide. This is also when the hottest of summertime weather is often observed.

However, the upper high is quite weak now; while an unseasonably deep upper low located over southwestern Canada looks to be a major player in our weather from Friday into next week. This low will likely drop southeast and be positioned over Kansas/Nebraska as the weekend approaches. It will in turn drag a fairly strong cold front (for late summer) our way as well. I am forecasting showery/stormy weather with unseasonably mild August temperatures for this period.

Certainly not your typical set-up for this time of year; but then, 2008 has been a strange one weatherwise!

Take Care,

Steve LaNore

Chief Meteorologist

KXII-TV