Fall 2008 Outlook

August 25, 2008

I have been asked by several people lately what we can expect for autumn of 2008.

First, a brief history lesson: The fall of 2007 was very dry and quite warm. The flooding rains of summer abruptly transitioned into a four-month drought from August to November. It was awful!

One of the driving forces for this was a fairly strong La Nina. This pattern tends to shift the jet stream further east leaving the southern Plains with a dry northwesterly flow beneath an upper ridge: not a favorable set-up for rain in these parts.

The La Nina has fizzled in the past few months, leaving us in a “neutral” situation. This means that neither a La Nina nor an El Nino is currently in progress.  The statistics since 1980 reveal dry autumns during several neutral years, such as in 2005, 2003, 1990 and 1989, while there are also a number of instances with very heavy rain events during neutral years. Examples in the months October or November include 1996 (over 13” of rain in November), and 1984 (over 10” of rain in October).

Thus, the odds are that we’ll have a fairly average fall precipitation season, but this may be punctuated by one or more heavy rain events if things trend wetter.  September and October are usually rainy months here, with October the 2nd wettest (on average) of the year and September the 4th wettest (the last half of September gets most of the rain for the month).

The Climate Prediction Center has also issued a fall forecast. We both agree on the rainfall, they go on to suggest we can expect above normal temperatures as well.  I am led to believe that this is also too close to call.

So, my autumn 2008 forecast for Texoma is for near normal rainfall and temperatures.

I will post an updated fall outlook towards the end of September.

As always, time will tell!

Take Care,

Steve LaNore

Chief Meteorologist

 KXII-TV

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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  • by Steve LaNore Location: KXII-TV on Sep 4, 2008 at 04:47 PM
    MW, September will likely have its usual ups and downs in the temperature, but with the jet stream coming south a bit early this year, the odds are against any heat waves during the next couple of weeks. I expect readings to be near to slightly below average through the 20th. I'm sure we'll see a few more days in the 90s but only a handful. The 30-year average high for October 1st is around 82 degrees with lows around 60, so you shouldn't have to wait until Halloween for cooler fall weather. Last year was an exception as it stayed very hot in October. Take Care, Steve
  • by MW Location: VAN ALSTYNE on Sep 4, 2008 at 12:00 PM
    Texan all my life and know that early September is not usually at high 80s and low 90s this long. later year trends are it does not even feel like fall around here until after October 31. Usually hot as heck until after Halloween then lucky if by Thanksgiving get cool breezes. Do you expect the rest of the September month to remain "cool" for us as compared to the usual? Bought a boat this year expecting to use it until Oct or Nov so this figures!
  • by Leith Location: denison, texas on Aug 27, 2008 at 02:43 PM
    Ok thanks for the info Steve.
  • by Steve LaNore Location: KXII-TV on Aug 26, 2008 at 04:33 PM
    In response to Leith's questions: 1) Too early to say about winter. There is some chance a weak El Nino may develop by then. I will not issue my winter outlook until mid November as I do every year. 2)The Fort Worth NWS gives daily rainfall at this website: www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd Click on "local climate" and then "preliminary climatology data"...you can fish out the data from there. 3)Radar-estimated rainfall products are reset every few days; the Fort Worth weather service page has a place once you click "radar imagery...DFW" where you can click for one-hour or storm totals. Same for the Norman office in Oklahoma. That address is www.srh.noaa.gov/oun 4) Davis makes several good affordable (more or less) weather stations. Just Google Davis weather stations and you'll get hits on that. Take Care, Steve
  • by BETH on Aug 26, 2008 at 12:38 PM
    Steve, thank you so much for the fall outlook!! While we understand that the forecast becomes more difficult the further out the prediction is, we apprecate your outlooks!! keep up the great work!!
  • by Leith Location: denison on Aug 25, 2008 at 04:11 PM
    Now watch we will get 24 inches of rain in September, now that you said that Steve.LOL just kidding. Steve So what do you think about this upcoming winter. I know it way way to earlier even to make a educated guess but what do you think? I have another question I was wondering if you knew a web site that has a radar that gives hourly daily weekly rainfall. You know several time you have shown a radar that gives estimated rain fall for a certain period of time. I was wondering if their was a site for general public to view. One more thing if i was to put up a mini weather station. You know to measure rainfall, wind speed Pressure, and stuff like that could I stream the info to The nation weather service or someone that could put it to good use. What would be a good "Weather Station" to start out with. Thx
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