September 2008: Active in the tropics

September 2, 2008

The tropics have “exploded” with activity in early September. While not quite to the pace of the record 2005 season (when we were already in the “O” names by September 6th) it’s coming in well above average, which was expected.

Weak wind shear over the tropics (read my previous blog on Gustav for more on this effect) has created favorable conditions for these tropical cyclones to grow.  At present, there are three to watch:  Hanna, likely to strike somewhere on the east coast by the end of the week, Ike, further out to sea in the central Atlantic and perhaps to threaten Puerto Rico by the weekend, and Josephine, which will not be in the western Atlantic until September 7 or 8th at the earliest.

Early to mid September is the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season so it’s not all that unusual to have three storms going at once, but it’s safe to say August was a busy month; quite a bit above the average, and September looks to follow this trend.

As for whether any of these storms may eventually affect Texas and Oklahoma weather, it’s quite doubtful for Hanna while Ike and Josephine are simply too far away to make a call right now.

 

Thus, plenty of stuff to watch for the next few days….

Take Care,

Steve LaNore

Chief Meteorologist

KXII-TV

 

 

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Comments are posted from viewers like you and do not always reflect the views of this station.
  • by Jack McBroom Sr. Location: Sherman, Texas on Sep 9, 2008 at 06:33 AM
    2 Bath 5 Bedroom To bay
  • by Lynn Location: Grayson County on Sep 4, 2008 at 06:36 PM
    Steve, Thank you so much for the enlightening information. Now I know ('why'). This is the first time I've heard the explanation regarding Gulf vs Atlantic Hurricanes. Hopefully, the remainder of this Hurricane season will not be disasters like Katrina. Keep up the good work! You, Tom and Megan are the best. I enjoy each and every weather broadcast! You guys stay on top of all weather events! The Texoma region is very lucky to have you on board! Thanks Again for the Hurricane education! -- Lynn
  • by Steven LaNore on Sep 4, 2008 at 04:37 PM
    Lynn, Hurricanes are steered by a combination of surface pressure features and upper level wind patterns. Each tropical cyclone moves in a different way based on these influences. The intensity and size of the tropical storm or hurricane will also affect how vulnerable it is to wind shear and steering. Two storms close together will even influence each other. Many hurricanes through history have started in the Atlantic and made it into the Gulf. It’s just that the wind currents pushing “Hanna” and “Ike” around favor a motion which will keep them in the Atlantic. With Ike, however, this is far from certain; there is some chance it will make it into the Gulf. Time will tell…. Take Care, Steve
  • by Lynn Location: Grayson County on Sep 4, 2008 at 02:56 PM
    Why do some hurricanes like Gustav and Katrina travel through the Gulf of Mx. and others such as Hannah and Ike seemingly will track up towards the East Coast. Just wondering why.
  • by Anonymous on Sep 4, 2008 at 11:22 AM
    To Steve:I wasnt making a bad comment to you.I know Oklahoma weather is hard to judge.It would take a miracle worker to be able to predict it and theres only one of them.You and the rest of the weather team do a very good job.I apoligize if I sounded negative.
  • by Steve LaNore Location: KXII-TV on Sep 3, 2008 at 12:56 PM
    In regards to the "anonymous" post, it puzzles me why some people make comments like this. All sciences have limits of accuracy. If you understand that we strive our best to be correct as much as possible, then perhaps a little graciousness is in order when we miss one now and then. You are certainly at liberty to try it (forecasting) on your own; if so please let us know how that works for you in the interest of science. Take care, Steve
  • by BETH Location: DENISON on Sep 3, 2008 at 11:04 AM
    STEVE, ARE WE ALREADY SEEING A FALL WEATHER PATTERN WITH THESE COLD FRONTS?
  • by beth Location: denison on Sep 3, 2008 at 08:00 AM
    hey steve - enjoying the cooler breezes, i hope we can kiss 90 degree weather goodby soon---hello fall!!
  • by Anonymous on Sep 2, 2008 at 05:27 PM
    I wish there was a weatherman that didnt change the forecast everyday.
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