UPDATE: September 11, 2008

The upper ridge is weakening just a tad faster than predicted; the makes a northward turn very likely, (see map) although not certain, for the track of "Ike". Galveston and Houston are likely to be hit hard by the storm; the question is just how "sharp" will the right turn be? It depends on how fast an upper trough now to our west begins to influence the steering currents in the path of Ike...and how fast the ridge shifts eastward and weakens.

The European model has had the best performance with Ike the past three days and matches up well with the NHC prediction, so this is my model of choice. 

At this point, the area of Texoma east of Highway 75 will experience the strongest winds and heaviest rainfall. Naturally, any shift in the track of "Ike" to the west would bring the brunt of the tropical cyclone through more of Texoma as well. The expected speed and track will make for the worst weather from late Saturday morning through Sunday morning. Since the storm will be picking up forward speed as it moves our way, I do not expect more than 12-18 hours of really stormy weather. The wind will be a bit slow to subside on the back side of Ike but most of the rain should be over by mid-afternoon Sunday.

I will update this blog again late Friday morning...check back for the latest, and don't forget to click on the National Hurricane Center link for their official updates every three hours!

Take Care,

Steve

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UPDATE: September 10, 2008

The NHC 4pm advisory as well as all available atmospheric data still points to "Ike" charging right through Texoma as a tropical storm (winds of 39-73mph) or a tropical depression (winds of less than 39mph, but still with a closed low pressure circulation) Saturday night and Sunday. This is represented as "Set-up #1" on the above map.

If this happens, extreme rainfall of 5-10" is likely along with winds of perhaps 50 to 60mph and isolated tornadoes. Essentially, my thinking remains unchanged from yesterday's blog update. We can only hope that things will change  before Saturday.

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UPDATE: September 9, 2008

The atmospheric parameters continue to point to a Texas landfall for Ike. The window of opportunity for the trough...which is now passing north of Ike over Tennessee..to influence the storm's path will be closed by Wednesday afternoon. If the storm has not turned by that time then we're in the 80% or greater chance that it will make landfall in the Lone Star State. Or , it may turn briefly to the north or northwest only to resume a westward track. based on the movement of the steering features, we should have a much more confident forecast by 10pm Wednesday.

The map above has been modified to reflect steering influences for the weekend, after Ike makes its landfall.  The two most likely scenarios both bring heavy rain to Texoma:

Set-up #1 pushes the storm right up I-35 and brings a deluge to southern Oklahoma and north Texas late Saturday into Sunday.

Set-up #2 takes Ike's remains the "long way around" the upper ridge and brings them over us Monday. Either way, the evolving scenario points to substantial flooding potential this weekend. I'd like to caution you that this a POTENTIAL event still several days away...but as it's quite possible I wanted you to know.

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September 8, 2008

On September 8, 1900, the greatest loss of life of any natural disaster in the United States took place when an intense hurricane made landfall near Galveston, Texas.  Estimates range from 8,000 to 10,000 killed, many by drowning.

One hundred and eight years later, we’re tracking Hurricane Ike. Odds are increasing that this tropical cyclone will make landfall along the Texas coastline this weekend.

There are two camps of thought with the future track of Ike (see map above):

 1)      A passing upper trough will tug Ike northward towards Louisiana ;

 2)      The trough will “miss” Ike and it will be pushed west or west-northwest by an upper ridge into Texas .

While it’s simply too early to call this, the second solution seems to match up better with the meteorology of what’s happening in the atmosphere. The trough looks be too far to the north…and too fast-moving… to do more than initiate a temporary “jog” in Ike’s path.

This leaves the question where in Texas will Ike hit if it follows track#2? Tough to say, but any place from Corpus Christi to Beaumont is under some threat.

A second trough approaching from the west this weekend should pull Ike northward. This accounts for the extended forecast’s higher rain chances for Sunday and Monday. If the storm moves even further south, it may simply continue westward into Mexico and bring no rain to Texoma at all.

A reminder: you can follow the “ National Hurricane Center ” link on this page for the very latest bulletins on Ike, which are updated every three hours.

Take Care,

Steve LaNore

Chief Meteorologist

KXII-TV