Russian Cold...and Ice Possible...UPDATED 12 December

 

 UPDATE: 12 December 2008

After a warm weekend, arctic cold…a mixture of Siberian and Canadian air…will blow through Texoma Monday. It will remain a wintry cold for much of next week.

Now for the bad news/good news:

Bad: The probability of receiving freezing rain or sleet Tuesday-Wednesday is increasing with the evolution of this weather scenario.

Good:. A major ice storm which might cause power failures and such looks rather unlikely based on the available moisture and weak upper support. Some travel problems may take place, though.

Naturally, these things tend to vary as we zero in on the day in question, but that’s the way it looks right now.

Take Care,

Steve LaNore

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10 December 2008

I am posting a new blog because it appears more likely that Siberian air will cross into Alaska/Canada in the coming days and begin to move southward towards the “lower 48”. This, with an additional twist: elements for an over-running pattern seem to be coming together as well.

All of the computer models bring an arctic front, behind which will be a mixture of frigid Russian and North American air, through Texoma Monday (December 15). What remains to be seen is whether it’ll be the fringes of a very cold outbreak…or whether we’ll get deeper into the chill. Further north, it’s likely to be the coldest air so far this season. Lows may hit fifteen to twenty below in the Dakotas by early next week!  Brrr!

Given the expected over-running upper air pattern, there will be the potential for wintry precipitation if it gets cold enough behind the front (see map). Warm air (less dense) gliding over cooler air (denser) is lifted…and given sufficient moisture, precipitation will form. While I don't want to alarm anyone, the most likely form for this precipitation to take would be freezing rain or sleet. I base this on the shallow nature of arctic air: if the clouds are not 32 degrees or less, then rain falls and freezes passing through the colder air below. This is the most typical Texoma situation when we get over-running with an arctic air mass.

For now, let's just hide and watch...and stay warm!

 Take Care,

 Steve LaNore

 Chief Meteorologist

 KXII-TV

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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