Off Course...

Off Course (From The "Oops" Department)
15 February 2009

No sense candy coating it: Saturday’s rainfall was a fine example of a busted forecast!

An upper level “ripple” (or wave) of energy moved in from Mexico and was much further north and stronger than expected. This brought rain and even a few thunderstorms (none severe) our way. This rain area was expected to remain closer to the Austin-Houston area, but it turned out not even raining in Austin.

Errors are a part of the frustration those in all sciences face; it was just one of those little surprises that makes the job interesting, and keeps us humble.

Take Care,

Steve LaNore
Chief Meteorologist
KXII-TV
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Comments are posted from viewers like you and do not always reflect the views of this station.
  • by Steve LaNore Location: KXII-TV on Feb 17, 2009 at 07:28 PM
    An answer to the St. Jo resident’s question is: it could have been a little of both. Sleet was reported, but there were also some weak thunderstorms in the area. While they were not severe, they may have had sufficient updrafts to make some very small hail. I checked the Storm Prediction Center database for Saturday and no severe hail (penny size or larger) was reported in Texoma. Hail can form within a thunderstorm even on a cold day if temperatures above ground are warmer. This warmer air is needed to help provide sufficient lift for a tall updraft to develop. This happened on February 21, 2008. The surface temperature was 35 degrees but it was in the 50s a few thousand feet above ground. A thunderstorm produced penny size hail in Grayson County (near Howe) that day. It covered the ground in a few spots! Take Care, Steve
  • by me Location: saint jo tx on Feb 17, 2009 at 03:07 PM
    We got sleetor maybe small hail I don't know what it was. larger than sleet but smallest hail I would have ever seen.
  • by Darrell Location: Pottsboro on Feb 16, 2009 at 02:05 PM
    Hey Steve....My first forecast on tv in 1977 was clear and sunny for the afternoon. The thunder woke me up from my nap later that afternoon...It happens to the best of us...Good Job! Darrell
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