Colder Nights...



Colder Nights...
Monday, 16 February 2009
 
For much of January, we had a dry winter weather pattern with sunny, mild days and clear, very cold nights. This was the result of a north to northwesterly flow aloft, which tends to bring cold and dry high pressure south from Canada. We had several arctic visits, but just caught the fringes of the very cold stuff each time.
 
A similar upper flow seems to be taking shape for later this week and perhaps into next week. It will favor cold nights (below freezing) but fairly mild days, and sunny conditions.
 
About this time every year, I get asked when the last spring freeze might take place. The (30-year) average dates for last freeze in Texoma are mid-March…so we’ve got a ways to go yet.
 
Of course, we’ve seen freezes into early April several times in the past five years, so patience might be the best course here.
 
Take Care,
Steve LaNore
Chief Meteorologist
KXII-TV
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  • by Steve LaNore Location: KXII-TV on Feb 24, 2009 at 08:28 AM
    Hey folks, this is great: a science debate. But insults are not necessary, are they? In any case, the arctic intrusion looks less likely now; perhaps a glancing blow at best. However, a review of some facts instead of name calling might be beneficial: First of all, models are just that: computerized guesses; and yes the models all have their biases (built in errors). When we get out seven days we are examining the available data such as pattern tendencies, temperatures upstream, etc. but also having to adjust the forecast to which model is most consistent. Sometimes they all perform badly and that’s why seven day forecasts can be pretty good but not to the level of tomorrow’s. There are too many changes and the “domino effect” of mistakes the further out you get in time. Second, a “zonal” (west to east) flow does not prevent arctic air from moving our way. True, it does lower the odds of southward penetration, but you can’t be dogmatic about it. I have seen a lot of busted f
  • by Darrell Location: Pottsboro on Feb 23, 2009 at 11:52 AM
    Syd...As I hope you know, ARCTIC air is like ice water. Once it is spilled, it runs everywhere. I have seen ARCTIC air spill south with the upper winds from the southwest. That is what "OVERRUNNING" means when we talk about winter precip. As for the computer models, they are only as accurate as the initial data input is. Steve and myself read the data as we comprehend it for that period of forecasting time. That's the challenge of what we do....! Darrell
  • by Syd Location: Ardmore on Feb 21, 2009 at 12:24 AM
    Arctic Air around the 26th or 27th? Come on guys. I would like to know how you define ARCTIC. Lows in the 30 and Highs in the 50s? Sounds more like a typical Feb day to me. You don't get Arctic Air with a Zonal flow. Single digits or at least teens would be more like Arctic Air. Guys review your GFS bias info. If you want to talk Model output try the ECMWF. It is much more reliable for shallow cold air intrusions. There is NO ARCTIC air in our future around Feb 26 or 27th. A little cooler or even colder sure. But Arctic Air..No Way. Even Climo is against that. Darrel you can't just look at one model and say that is what is going to happen. Remember they flip flop from day to day. If your the same Darrel Reed that got fired from Channel 10 a few years ago I understand why now. You even mispelled ARcTIC. GEEZ
  • by Darrell Location: Pottsboro on Feb 20, 2009 at 07:23 AM
    Hey Steve...Yes, I see the arrival of some artic air, also high dewpoints 12z Thursday ahead of front with a Dryline near I-35 corridor..Maybe storms on Thursday, then much colder....Darrell
  • by Steve LaNore Location: KXII-TV on Feb 19, 2009 at 03:00 PM
    Darrell, March 1st is a bit beyond my comfort range (10 days as of this writing) but there is a strong signal showing up in the models for arctic air to arrive Feb 26th or 27th. This has been consistently indicated for several days, but of course it is still a ways off. Beyond that...it stands to reason the coldest air will be east of us by then...but that's just speculation this far out. Stay tuned...! Take Care, Steve
  • by Darrell Location: Pottsboro on Feb 19, 2009 at 11:56 AM
    Hey Steve....A quick glance at the GFS 180hr..Perhaps a more springlike start to March...Darrell
  • by mooney Location: ardmore on Feb 16, 2009 at 03:33 PM
    I wish the weather would stay spring like.The temps were nice last week.Im ready to get the garden out.We can do without the spring tornadoes though.
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