Does Texoma's 3rd Warmest March Mean a Hot Summer for 2012?

The year 2012 saw the 3rd warmest March in Texoma history**.

The statistics tell the story:

  • March 2012 had an average temperature of 61.9 degrees compared to the 30-year average of 54.3.                                                                             
  • March 2012 saw 17 of its 31 days with the average temperatures 10 degrees or more above normal: a very significant walk on the warm side.  
  • An observed average temperature at or below normal was recorded on only 6 days.
  • 2012 also had some of the earliest “last freeze” dates on record on both sides of the Red River.
  • Most locations had their last freeze 3 to 4 weeks earlier than average. Copy the link below for detailed information on observed city-by-city last freeze dates (discussion continues below graphic):

           http://bit.ly/Hht5dY

 

WHAT ABOUT THIS SUMMER?

Quite a few viewers have asked me about the link between the warm start to spring and a possibly hot summer. Well, the good news is there’s really no connection:

>>>2011 was our hottest summer on record, but March 2011 didn’t even make the top 10 warmest.

>>>The summer of 1998 was rather brutal, but  March of that year wasn't found among the top 10 for high temperatures either.

>>>The year 1980 saw another blistering summer in Texoma while March of that year wasn’t particularly warm.

So a warm March offers few clues on what to expect this July.

** Records from Dallas and Oklahoma City were used to help fill in the gaps within the Texoma climate record.

 
Take Care,

Steve LaNore

Chief Meteorologist

KXII-TV

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Comments are posted from viewers like you and do not always reflect the views of this station.
  • by ron Location: Howe on Apr 8, 2012 at 07:57 AM
    That's what I like about your analysis, Steve. You don't make too much hay from one straw, or a whole vest out of one button. The true scientific method. Observe, analyze, hypothesize (with care.)
  • by Dwayne Location: Antlers on Apr 5, 2012 at 11:43 AM
    steve what do you think about the rest of our tornado season,i know it is early,but so far several states have really paid the price,dallas was a little to close like tuska last year.
  • by Steve LaNore on Apr 3, 2012 at 07:32 PM
    Lori, The 2007 summer flooding was not typical for most Texoma summers in any way, and it was also helped along by a weakening El Nino which is not expected this summer. None of the top 5 warmest Marches were followed by top-10 wet periods in June, July or August. We have to be careful in linking such things too closely, but there appears to be little relation to a warm March versus a wet summer. Take Care - Steve
  • by Lori Location: Bonham on Apr 3, 2012 at 07:59 AM
    I see 2007 on the list of warmest Marches on record...That was the year we had such bad flooding, wasn't it? Is there a higher than average rainfall connection in any of those other years? Just curious if we are going from serious drought to flooding this year.
  • by Steve LaNore on Apr 2, 2012 at 03:50 PM
    Nancy, La Nina is fizzling which suggests not as hot as last summer- but that would be pretty easy to do since it was the hottest on record! - Steve
  • by Nancy Location: Denison on Apr 1, 2012 at 08:57 PM
    You made my day! How is La Nina coming along? I believe you said it could change.
  • by Nancy Location: Denison on Mar 31, 2012 at 12:37 PM
    Well, Steve ... you made my day. I believe I was one of the people asking you about this summer and you mentioned a possible ease up on La Nina some time ago. How's that looking?
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