Heavy rain potential: Thu night through Saturday

 

 

A well-defined upper low now over Nevada is continuing to move as expected (to the east). Increasing low-level moisture and lift as the low nears spells rain and thunderstorms by Thursday night/Friday. These may continue depending on the speed of the low and how much the first wave of storms stabilizes the air mass.

The rainfall map (above) suggests a round of heavy rain being the most likely scenario. Given the deluge we received Sunday, this additional rainfall will likely run off and may cause some minor to moderate flooding issues. Heaviest rain may be just south of Texoma but it's going to be a soaker at least.

On the other hand, area farms and ranches still have low stock tanks and this will help to fill them, so it’s likely to be a mixed blessing.

As for overall severe threat, it seems to be shrinking away a bit; dry air recirculating over the northern Gulf and then back through Texoma looks to keep surface dewpoints below the ideal severe threshold. Also, extensive cloud cover and possible rain-cooled air Friday would further serve to limit the more extreme severe potential. Since the upper low has cold air aloft, hail is once again the most likely severe element.

Of course, these systems are very dynamic, but a slight risk of severe seems to be the most Texoma is faced with at present.

Take Care,

Steve LaNore

Chief Meteorologist


 

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  • by Steve LaNore Location: KXII-TV on Apr 16, 2009 at 06:40 PM
    Veronica, Any severe storm CAN produce a tornado...but this time the overall risk for hail is much higher than that for tornadoes. So while the tornado chance is not zero, it's rather low. The number one thing to watch for is heavy rain but unfortunately some hail may fall here and there as well. Take Care, Steve
  • by Veronica Location: sadler,TX on Apr 16, 2009 at 03:49 PM
    Well, is there a threat of tornadeos possible?I hate tornadeos more than anything in the world and i would like to know if there is a very high or a very low possible chance of tornadoes!Thank you and plz reply here or email.
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