Slight Risk of Severe: With Commentary

There will be a risk of severe weather as a cold front and several small upper troughs interact with hot and humid air.

The highest severe threat will be Wednesday evening into Thursday.

There seems to be a misunderstanding on what “slight risk” means.

Severe storm categories (slight, medium and high) take into account a large zone; the risk given for destructive weather is defined as within 25 miles of any one point inside the zone. 

Example: Texoma had a wind damage event a few weeks ago; someone wrote in to say trees were blown over and this made “slight risk” bogus.

Even though there was a damage event (near Antlers), it was the only one in our entire area. The SPC categories are defined as the risk for any one point within a 25-mile circle. So slight risk does not mean there won’t be any damaging weather, it means the odds for any one street or neighborhood are very small.

When a moderate or high risk day comes around, greater thunderstorm coverage and intensity will be expected.

Take Care,
Steve LaNore
KXII-TV
 

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  • by Doug Drace Location: Ardmore, Oklahoma on Jun 11, 2009 at 08:41 PM
    Great Blog Steve! Seems there is a huge misconception amongst the general public about the Slight, Moderate and High Risk catagories. As a Storm Chaser I get those types of comments and questions a lot about the Risk Levels, and I think you cleared it up perfectly! Ultimately it is still a "Forecast" and not a "Guarantee" of the expected overall "Coverage, Intensity and Types" of Severe Weather "Expected" (be it Tornadic Supercells, Big Hailer Supercells, Squall Lines or Multicell Storm/Damaging Wind Producers) within the outlined Slight, Moderate or High Risk Zone. Always remember, A Slight Risk can produce just as nasty severe weather as a High Risk, if you happen to be in the path of an Isolated Destructive Supercell (it only takes that one horrible severe storm in your backyard to know this), so ALL Risk Levels should be taken seriously when it comes to living in Tornado Alley! Take Care and Peace! KXII Storm Tracker Doug Drace
  • by SB Location: WB on Jun 10, 2009 at 08:56 AM
    Couldn't have said it better!!! Thanks Steve!!!
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