Strong Front: Mon/Tue

 

 
UPDATE: Friday 18 Sep 2009 (map updated as well)
Little has changed regarding the front's arrival. Given the configuration of jet stream, moisture profile, and strength of the front, strong to severe storms are possible along this boundary Monday night and/or Tuesday. Be sure and tune in to Aimee for updates this weekend.
 
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It’s been a mighty soggy time as of late and we could use a break from the rain to let the soils dry a bit.
 
A drier pattern may be evolving for next week. The map above shows the approximate position of a cold front Sunday evening.
 
High pressure building in should transport a less humid air mass in behind that frontal boundary.
 
This situation is not guaranteed, however; the southern jet has become quite active with many upper lows forming over the past two weeks. There’s some potential for another one of these to lumber along with clouds and rain behind the front for next week, but the odds are better that an open trough will push the front through and then move eastward instead of lingering.
 
Since the odds favor the drier solution, I’m taking the rain out of the forecast after Tuesday.
 
Take Care,
 
Steve LaNore
Chief Meteorologist
KXII-TV
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  • by Steve LaNore Location: KXII-TV on Sep 23, 2009 at 01:28 PM
    J., An El Nino winter typically is one with above normal precipitation due to frequent upper troughs and an active southern branch of the jet stream. As far as snowfall or ice: If sufficient cold air shows up with the above average moisture (and active storm track) expected, then we could get a major winter episode. I'd say the odds of that are slightly better than average. If this were a strong El Nino the odds of that would be below average because the cold air would generally be shunted eastward. Since it's only a moderate El Nino, one or more Canadian air masses may be able to interact with the jet and upper lows to set us up for some of the "white stuff". There's just no way to know until a particular event takes shape.
  • by J. Location: Pottsboro on Sep 23, 2009 at 11:47 AM
    Steve, when you say "rainy winter" does this mean more winter precip. such as sleet/snow?
  • by Steve LaNore Location: KXII-TV on Sep 21, 2009 at 12:38 PM
    Beth, With El Nino getting stronger, a stormy fall (and rainy winter) is becoming more likely. As for the other question on DST, the law changed two years ago and standard time now begins on the first Sunday in November so Halloween will always be in Daylight Saving Time unless the law changes in the future. Take Care, Steve
  • by beth on Sep 21, 2009 at 06:36 AM
    Hi Steve, does this active weather indicate we are entering the fall pattern?
  • by Anonymous Location: Ardmore on Sep 20, 2009 at 06:03 PM
    Bring on the cool air!Steve,is daylight savings time after Hallowen I thought it was usually the weekend before?
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