Cooler weather greets Texoma for the first few days of fall, but an unsettled pattern will linger thanks to an upper low spinning about to our northwest.
Just as we saw with the wobbly rain-maker low earlier this month, the movement of these features can be extremely difficult to forecast when the steering currents become weak.
The new low looks to get “trapped” in such an environment mid-week, before being nudged eastward by another wave moving by in the jet stream flow.
This will make for a chance of rain returning by Thursday, but hopefully ending by the weekend if it moves as expected.
My confidence in this forecast is moderate because the models generally agree; but not high due to the unpredictable nature of this pattern.