Christmas Eve: UPDATE

 UPDATE: 3:10p.m. Wed 23 Dec 2009

The situation has changed somewhat as the upper low is coming in a bit further south. This boosts the snowfall potential especially over the northern half of Texoma (as mentioned in the first discussion from Monday). Since this system will tend to "wobble" about a bit, snowfall is also possible ion the Texas side of the river, but in general the chances for significant snowcover will increase as you move northward. Near blizzard conditions are possible in the Tulsa area, and possibly Oklahoma City as well, Thursday.

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UPDATE: Tuesday 22 Dec 2009 / 3:30p.m.

The storm system is coming together about as expected, although the trends are to take the core of the upper low further north. This reduces the chances for snow in Texoma, but experience tells me it's too soon to write off a chance of snow, at least over portions of the area, Thursday.

Since the trends suggest drier air will have wrapped in behind the front before it's cold enough for snow, I'd peg the chances of accumulating snowfall for Texoma at only 20%. Stay tuned for updates! (see rest of discussion below from Monday)

                                       Above map based on GFS 1200CST run Mon 21 Dec 2009 / Valid 0645CST Thu 24 Dec 2009 
 
A major winter storm will be taking shape by Christmas Eve over the southern Plains. This will bring a wide assortment of weather to Oklahoma and Texas, including the possibility of snow, mainly to our north and west.
 
An upper low will track eastward from the Rockies by Thursday, driving a surface low and cold front just ahead of it. I expect rain and thunderstorms some of which may be heavy as the front nears.
 
The surface front should punch through late Wednesday or early Thursday.
 
If the upper low tracks along the Red River, Texoma would be under the cold core of the low and could get some snow behind the front.
 
Present indications place the upper low closer to the I-44 corridor which puts Oklahoma City and Tulsa in a better position for snow.
 
It’s something that will have to be watched closely. Texoma will almost certainly get some rain, possibly heavy rain, by the time the front blows through.
 
Windy and downright cold weather can be expected for Christmas Day.
 
Stay warm!
 
Steve LaNore
Chief Meteorologist
KXII-TV
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