Arctic air returning to Texoma?

UPDATE: Friday 5 Feb 2010 / 9:30p.m.

The forecast regarding the arctic air mass remains basically the same. Tuesday will be quite windy and much colder with highs struggling into the low to mid 30s. There will be a chance of snow Thursday as an upper trough passes.

 

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Original discussion / Thu 4 Feb 2010 / 4p.m.

Another shot of wintry cold continues to show up in both the GFS and EMCWF models (two of the primary ones I use) for next week. The agreement between them has been quite good since Tuesday on the evolution of this event. Also, surface air temperatures are very cold in northern and central Canada to the tune of -20 to -30. This lends further credence to the model solution.

 
The computer output shows a deep polar vortex spinning very cold air southward on its western side beginning Sunday,  with the leading edge of it reaching Texoma by Monday night/Tuesday.
This will likely come with an initial surge of chilly air Monday night, with colder air gradually seeping in as the surface high settles southward by Wednesday.
 
It is not expected to be as frigid as the early January event.
 
It’s very difficult to pinpoint the timing of upper troughs when we have a lot of them with short wavelengths (as we have had lately), but there is some potential for snow or ice later next week.
 
Stay warm!
 
Take Care,
 
Steve LaNore
Chief Meteorologist
KXII-TV
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