The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) says there’s a slight risk of severe thunderstorms Wednesday evening/night. The risk percentages of 5% and 15% above mean this is the probability of a severe weather occurrence within 25 miles of any point within the two zones. Almost all of Texoma is within the 15% area. The primary threat is hail.
Low-level moisture is returning from the Gulf with a bit more vigor than earlier forecast. Dewpoints are increasing on the heels of a strong low-level jet. This will keep winds up tonight and temperatures will bottom out in the 50s.
An upper low will move in from the west tomorrow, providing lifting. A dry line will also form up to our west, which may enhance the potential for a few rough storms.
A factor working against strong storm formation is cloud cover. If the skies remain overcast, or if rain develops ahead of the main upper level impulse, the instability will be reduced. In this case, severe weather would not take place.
So, it’s a “slight risk” area, but certainly something we'll keep tabs on for you.