Upper lows moving along a more southerly storm track factor into severe potential.
UPDATE: Thu 6 May 2010/ 4:00p.m.
The overall pattern as shown above remains intact, but the lead low may track a bit further north Monday. This lowers the severe risk for Texoma, but we're still close enough to the suspect area so we should remain vigilant.
The second bout on Thu-Fri looks to have a higher storm/severe threat as there will be a deeper and slower-moving low associated with it. This one also brings flood potential if it pans out as the models show: strong Gulf inflow, slow moving upper level and surface elements.
Of course, so much can change in the next few days, but these two potential storm intervals do merit our attention.
We have been very fortunate in Texoma this year in regards to severe weather. We just haven’t had any of significance.
We’re already more than half way through the “season” which runs March 15-June 15, when Texoma receives about 80% of our yearly severe weather events. Floods are counted separately: here I refer to tornadoes and severe thunderstorms.
Despite two major tornado outbreaks since April 22, the U.S. total is also running behind the normal with a count at about 70% of the 55-year average YTD.
Well…there will be an increased risk of severe weather next week if the scenario projected by several different computer models takes shape. Several indicators point to this being a decent forecast:
1) NW Gulf sea surface temperatures are rising after being very chilly this spring; although still below average, they are now in the low to mid 70s. This is sufficient to create very moisture-rich air, which will likely be moving northward on the heels of gusty southerly winds.
2) The storm track is expected to shift southward next week (map), bringing upper troughs with their lifting and cold air aloft our way.
3) An upper level jet now over the central Pacific is also indicated to strengthen as it moves eastward, and be an element within this regime.
4) A strong low-level jet, which is anticipated, will combine with elements (2) and (3) to create high wind shear values.
So while there’s a lot that can change, things are in general pointing to Texoma skies awakening from their spring slumber sometime next week.