Severe Weather Potential: May 10-13

 

                       Upper lows moving along a more southerly storm track factor into severe potential.
 
UPDATE: Thu 6 May 2010/ 4:00p.m.
The overall pattern as shown above remains intact,  but the lead low may track a bit further north Monday. This lowers the severe risk for Texoma, but we're still close enough to the suspect area so we should remain vigilant.
 
The second bout on Thu-Fri looks to have a higher storm/severe threat as there will be a deeper and slower-moving low associated with it. This one also brings flood potential if it pans out as the models show: strong Gulf inflow, slow moving upper level and surface elements.
 
Of course, so much can change in the next few days, but these two potential storm intervals do merit our attention.
 
==========================ORIGINAL DISCUSSION=======================
 
 
We have been very fortunate in Texoma this year in regards to severe weather. We just haven’t had any of significance.
 
We’re already more than half way through the “season” which runs March 15-June 15, when Texoma receives about 80% of our yearly severe weather events. Floods are counted separately: here I refer to tornadoes and severe thunderstorms.
 
Despite two major tornado outbreaks since April 22, the U.S. total is also running behind the normal with a count at about 70% of the 55-year average YTD.
 
Well…there will be an increased risk of severe weather next week if the scenario projected by several different computer models takes shape. Several indicators point to this being a decent forecast:
 
1) NW Gulf sea surface temperatures are rising after being very chilly this spring; although still below average, they are now in the low to mid 70s. This is sufficient to create very moisture-rich air, which will likely be moving northward on the heels of gusty southerly winds.
 
2) The storm track is expected to shift southward next week (map), bringing upper troughs with their lifting and cold air aloft our way.
 
3) An upper level jet now over the central Pacific is also indicated to strengthen as it moves eastward, and be an element within this regime.
 
4) A strong low-level jet, which is anticipated, will combine with elements (2) and (3) to create high wind shear values.
 
So while there’s a lot that can change, things are in general pointing to Texoma skies awakening from their spring slumber sometime next week.
 
Stay tuned.
 
Take Care,
 
Steve LaNore
Chief Meteorologist
KXII-TV

 

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  • by Steve LaNore Location: KXII-TV on May 17, 2010 at 04:25 PM
    Brandon...I agree...check out my new blog which addresses a potential "significant severe" event. Take Care, Steve
  • by Brandon Location: Sherman on May 17, 2010 at 10:37 AM
    Looks like severe weather potential around the middle of this week around central Oklahoma with somewhat of a strong/isolated Tornado event! Some storms could drift into Texoma! We will see what happens!
  • by Steve LaNore Location: KXII-TV on May 11, 2010 at 07:16 PM
    Big Dave, Wow! Thanks....Well you hit some and then there's times when I'm off a bit and I thank you to get amnesia on those occasions. Seriously, it's a pleasure to create the maps and post the blogs, and I hope they are useful and interesting. -:) Take Care, Steve
  • by Amanda Location: Atoka on May 11, 2010 at 02:36 PM
    I have to disagree, most of the time we have to listen to what is taking shape around Ardmore, Sherman and Denison- I understand your tower cams and studios are in these areas. Last night we were trying t catch what was going on in our area, only to find video of earlier events. Please keep us little towns in mind!!!
  • by MaMa Location: Sherman on May 11, 2010 at 04:45 AM
    Definitely always more coverage on Oklahoma. Not ever much on Sherman/Denison area, we're in the hall shaking and there is never definite news on Sherman.
  • by Big Dave Location: Marietta on May 10, 2010 at 10:47 PM
    Weathermen generally catch a hard time by most folks, including myself sometimes. However, lets all give an appreciative shout-out to Steve for a change, who posted this blog SIX DAYS before it transpired. No scare tactics or ratings boosters here, but just an incredibly accurate heads up. Let's give credit where credit is due for a change......Steve, spot on!
  • by lee Location: denison on May 10, 2010 at 10:04 PM
    we had sirens going off tonight was quiet and then it hit hard.I think it is better to be safe than sorry and lives can be saved.Thanks for the constant updates and the projections of severe weather it gets everyone ready for it.The winds picked up alot here and hailed and could see rotation of clouds . So again thanks and keep up good work
  • by Kristin Location: Southern Texas on May 10, 2010 at 08:52 PM
    Where is KXII now?!!!! They had live coverage when there were tornadoes in Oklahoma and now that they are in Grayson and Fannin counties, KXII is no where to be seen as far as live coverage on the web. My mom is in Fannin county in a storm cellar with a cell phone, but no weather coverage. I need information!!!!!! What's going on?!!!!
  • by melvin Location: tishomingo on May 10, 2010 at 06:05 PM
    we have strong wind rain,dark clouds with light all around hard winds know
  • by Steve Location: Whitesboro on May 10, 2010 at 05:37 AM
    Thanks steve for the clarification. I think you do an excellent job and appreciate you and your staff for all you do. keep up the good work.
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