Heavy Rain May 13-16?

               Upper high will help to create parallel steering flow, allowing front to slow to a crawl, or possibly stall.

Tue 11 May 2010 / 8p.m.

A fairly “textbook” springtime heavy rainfall event is taking shape from Thursday into the weekend (May 13-16).
 
A cold front will move slowly through Texas and Oklahoma. As it presses further east, the circulation around an upper high (orange arrows on map) will contribute to the front stalling. Or, at least moving with only a turtle’s pace.
 
Second, moisture-charged air flowing unimpeded from the Gulf will provide a strong over-running environment.
 
Finally, a series of weak waves are expected to move along in the jet stream flow (blue arrows).
 
These ingredients spell "heavy rainfall" in the 2-4" range during the 4-day period. A faster frontal movement would lower these rainfall amounts. I am going with the slower progression based on the upper pattern.
 
So periods of rain and thunderstorms are in my forecast Thursday-Sunday.
 
The front should eventually move through as the upper high weakens. This would provide a more stable pattern by early next week.
 
Stay tuned.
 
Take Care,
 
Steve LaNore
Chief Meteorologist
KXII-TV
 
 
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  • by Steve LaNore Location: KXII-TV on May 17, 2010 at 04:22 PM
    Cliff, If you are experiencing difficulty with the First Alert we encourage you to contact them as they wrote the software and can provide the best help. Try this: 608-310-6083 or issues@myweather.net Take Care... Steve
  • by cliff Location: Madill on May 12, 2010 at 07:36 PM
    Steve, The new First Alert interactive radar worked very well using it in conjunction with your live coverage during the last round of tornados here in southern OK. The projected line of travel of the severe storms was very aaccurate. I was watching the storm moving through Lebonan and realized it was moving directly toward Bridgeview. It actually passed over the lake just south of the Bridgeview Point; as seen by some residents. I found that the only way I could get updates on the travel of the storm was to hit the refresh Icon on my computer. It didn't seem to update on its own. Is this the way it has to be done or is there a way to get it to continously update? By the way, it seems a shame you have to appologize for saving lives!!
  • by Steve LaNore Location: KXII-TV on May 12, 2010 at 02:01 PM
    Lee, Thanks for your note. There's a risk of a few severe storms overnight and into Thursday with the initial squall line; after that the severe risk will be very low due to weaker wind shear and a much cooler surface air mass. The primary threat with the squall line will be hail.... with only a small chance of an isolated tornado. Rainfall may top 4" in some places by Sunday; so it's going to be a soggy period. Take Care, Steve
  • by lee Location: denison on May 11, 2010 at 09:59 PM
    are you expecting another round of possible tornadoes for thur-sun and what are probabilities these storms could go to supercell damaging storms .I appreciate the heads up.
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