Hot Times for Texoma

FINAL UPDATE: Thu 27 May 2010 / 3:20p.m.

Very little has changed; slightly drier air on an east to northeast wind flow will make for pleasant conditions during the evening and morning hours. An upper ridge should provide stable skies through Sunday afternoon.

It will be quite hot each day with highs in the 90-94 degree range. A chance of thunderstorms shows up by Sunday night as a trough pushes a front our way. (see new map just below).


Upper trough (dashed black line) and a deeper low to north (blue "L" along Canadian border) may push a front near us by Sunday night.


UPDATE: Wed 26 May / 10pm

The forecast remains the same: hot and humid with no rain expected Fri-Sat, and still a question for Sun-Mon as a front heads our way.



UPDATE: Tue 25 May 2010 / 3:35p.m.

A weakness developed in the mid-level flow since Monday's blog. This will contribute to a chance of rain. A weak front moving in Thursday will continue a rain prospect in the 20% range. I have nice weather for Friday and Saturday under the ridge shown on the map below.

The models weaken the ridge by Sunday so the threat of rain may slowly increase for the second half of he Holiday weekend.




UPDATE: Mon 24 May 2010 / 3:35p.m.

Little change to my blog from last Thursday; a weak front should stall to our west mid-week, which keeps the rain chances over western OK/TX. A second one Friday has a chance to reach Texoma. However, an upper ridge aloft (map) suggests the frontal lifting will fight against the sinking under the ridge, so I'm only putting a 20% chance for showers Friday.

Disclaimer: Tn unforeseen weakness in the ridge would allow for isolated showers this week. Since the odds of any one point getting rain are extremely low, I have not put it in the forecast.

Our first heat wave of 2010 will take us well into the last week of May with windy, hot, and humid conditions.
The map above shows a typical pattern for heat: a strong upper ridge developing. Since the center of the ridge will be to our east, it won’t be as hot as it would be if it was overhead.
Many of the record highs (which are around 100 this time of year) are set when we have a southwesterly surface flow and a ridge nearby.
I expect the flow to more southerly. This will bring plenty of Gulf moisture through Texoma. A fairly tight pressure field will also lend to rather windy conditions through early next week. So we’ll probably have early morning cloud cover with partly cloudy, windy and hot afternoons.
Day to day wind speeds may vary as a low pressure ebbs and flows to our north. The storm track should be deflected well to our north by this ridge. So it will be a much different pattern than we’ve seen the past couple of weeks.
While an isolated shower could pop up with daytime heating, rainfall prospects are too low to include in the forecast at this time.
Take Care,
Steve LaNore
Chief Meteorologist


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