Temperatures more typical of mid-summer will continue in this early summer time frame. This means daily highs 4-8 degrees above average.
The culprit: a large dome of sinking air associated with a closed high aloft. Sinking air heats, so upper highs or ridges are typically associated with hot summer weather.
In addition to the hot air, it will be quite muggy thanks to a south to southeast surface flow through Monday. This means heat index values (how hot it feels) will run above 100 through the weekend.
The map above shows the main storm track with the blue arrows and a trough embedded in the flow as a dashed gray line. The trough may be able to push a cold front far enough south to give us rain. So the next appreciable rain prospects come Monday night through Wednesday, as the cold front possibly moves into the area.
Since upper level support (from the trough) for this front looks questionable, I’m keeping rain chances at 30% for now.
Hopefully this will evolve into a higher precipitation potential as the event draws closer.