Mid-level trough (dashed blue line) will interact with high moisture content to produce locally heavy rain Saturday.
Your Independence Day Holiday weekend will be one where we’re in the rain, then out, then back in.
A moisture-charged atmosphere exists over Texoma, and upstream air is just as wet.
The values shown by Friday morning’s Fort Worth sounding (vertical measurement of the atmosphere from the surface to about 50,000 feet) are so high they only show up once or twice a year. The precipitable water, the total amount of moisture which would “fall out” under condensation, is measured as 2.40”. Normal July values are only half of that. So we’re talking very efficient rain producers.
Also, there’s no “cap”, so the slightest upward urging is generating scattered locally heavy rainfall. A weak mid-level wave comes through Saturday. We’re likely to have our maximum rain chances Friday and Saturday. The rainfall should be more widely spaced with precipitation prospects lower (but still in the forecast) Sunday.
A weak front and another mid-level trough may boost rain chance once again to round out the
Timing of these individual elements is very difficult, but the lion’s share of the heavy rain should be during the daylight hours each day.
Take Care..and here's hoping you have a great Holiday no matter the weather!