Heavy Rain Event Shaping Up Thu-Fri

HPC map above shows heavy rain potential of possibly 6" + in portions of Texoma through Saturday.

UPDATE: Wed 7 July 2010/ 3:30p.m. (map updated 6pm)

Flood and Flash Flood Watches are now posted for all of Texoma through Friday.

No changes to previous forecast, except to increase total rain forecast to 4-6" range.

 Please be careful when traveling and do not drive into flooded areas!

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UPDATE: Tue 6 July 2010 / 3:30p.m.

No changes to previous thinking, except to expect heavy rain to be in Wednesday's forecast as well. Tropical moisture has deepened a bit faster than earlier forecast.

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Mon 5 July 2010 / 3:45p.m.

The second heavy rainfall event of July 2010 is evolving for Thursday-Friday.
 
There is some similarity to last week’s event: A surge of rich tropical moisture will create a very high rainfall potential given enough lifting.
 
Some of that lifting will be provided by a weak low moving across north Texas, with a second help coming in the form of an upper trough moving west to east later this week. The upper trough will likely create rising pressures in its wake. This will serve to push a cold front into the region Thursday-Friday. The front will tend to generate and focus several rounds of heavy rain along it.
 
Whether the front stalls nearby or moves south is still uncertain, so this will have a great deal to do with the weekend weather. The precipitation totals may run to several inches before rainfall coverage and intensity decreases Saturday (assuming the front moves to our south).
 
Check back for updates to this blog each day through Thursday (I may start a new one by then).
 
Take Care,
 
Steve LaNore
Chief Meteorologist
KXII-TV
 
 
 
 

 

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Comments are posted from viewers like you and do not always reflect the views of this station.
  • by Steve LaNore Location: KXII-TV on Jul 8, 2010 at 10:42 AM
    Don, there’s too many websites to list here…however…here’s one. The rainfall forecast from the NWS can be gotten at http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day1-5.shtml Write me at steve.lanore@kxii.com if you’d like a list of more model data. Also: Special thanks to the kind people of Texoma: you know who you are... Take Care, Steve
  • by Heather on Jul 8, 2010 at 12:38 AM
    James, really!? Seriously? Thank you, Steve. You do a great job! We sincerely appreciate all the work you put into your forecasts.
  • by Joe Location: Gainesville, TX on Jul 7, 2010 at 11:18 PM
    Hey Steve, pay no attention to the people that post on here that use bad grammar and have an old toilet and refrigerator on the lawn in front of their single wide. You guys at KXII do a great job.
  • by james Location: hugo ok on Jul 7, 2010 at 10:37 AM
    steve u cannot tell the weather no better than i can so heres what i mean there is a 50% chance it will rain every day i think you would have better luck reading the almanac and by the way ouit smiling so much on tv
  • by Don Location: N Tx on Jul 7, 2010 at 08:25 AM
    Good work Steve. Is there anywhere online where I can get access to these types of models?
  • by Steve LaNore Location: KXII-TV on Jul 6, 2010 at 06:45 PM
    Bob, It's just a temporary pattern we're in...although a northwesterly flow will most likely bring another front in early next week...hotter and drier weather will probably resume after that as the ridge returns as shown by the models about the middle of next week...of course that many days out leads to lots of uncertainty -:) Take Care, Steve
  • by Bob Location: Texoma on Jul 6, 2010 at 10:17 AM
    Wow, looks like the whole weather pattern has shifted east 1000 miles or so?? We are getting the monsoonal flow that AZ. gets in the summer while the northeast is getting our 100 temps with the HI over the NE?? whats next?
  • by r.m Location: tx on Jul 6, 2010 at 06:03 AM
    when do you think the rain chances will cease?
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