HPC map above shows heavy rain potential of possibly 6" + in portions of Texoma through Saturday.
UPDATE: Wed 7 July 2010/ 3:30p.m. (map updated 6pm)
Flood and Flash Flood Watches are now posted for all of Texoma through Friday.
No changes to previous forecast, except to increase total rain forecast to 4-6" range.
Please be careful when traveling and do not drive into flooded areas!
UPDATE: Tue 6 July 2010 / 3:30p.m.
No changes to previous thinking, except to expect heavy rain to be in Wednesday's forecast as well. Tropical moisture has deepened a bit faster than earlier forecast.
Mon 5 July 2010 / 3:45p.m.
The second heavy rainfall event of July 2010 is evolving for Thursday-Friday.
There is some similarity to last week’s event: A surge of rich tropical moisture will create a very high rainfall potential given enough lifting.
Some of that lifting will be provided by a weak low moving across north Texas, with a second help coming in the form of an upper trough moving west to east later this week. The upper trough will likely create rising pressures in its wake. This will serve to push a cold front into the region Thursday-Friday. The front will tend to generate and focus several rounds of heavy rain along it.
Whether the front stalls nearby or moves south is still uncertain, so this will have a great deal to do with the weekend weather. The precipitation totals may run to several inches before rainfall coverage and intensity decreases Saturday (assuming the front moves to our south).
Check back for updates to this blog each day through Thursday (I may start a new one by then).