Tropical Storm "Bonnie" will be tops in weather news for the Gulf states into the weekend. For Texoma, we're talking the potential for some significant rainfall early next week.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast tracks shown above suggest the heaviest rain will go to our east, and that we will be on the "dry" western side of the system. However, a jog of just 100 miles westward could easily change that, and spiral rain bands around the low could still affect us with scattered storms during daytime heating.
Secondly, a large upper low (image below) is traveling westward just ahead of "Bonnie".
The shear associated with this feature may limit Bonnie's strength potential. But, the upper low itself is likely to turn north as it rounds the west side of a mid-level ridge. This ridge is also steering Bonnie, but since the tropical storm is much smaller, it is more susceptible to minor changes in steering winds, while the upper low has a lot of inertia and will tend to curve more slowly northward. (===keep reading below map)===
So bottom line:
1) Bonnie may come close enough as a low pressure area to produce rain Mon-Tue;
2) If Bonnie fizzles or moves too far eastward, a large upper low is expected to move northward to the west of Bonnie, which provides a second opportunity for rain early next week.
3) Given the speed of these two features, it is reasonable to expect some rain by Sunday evening if this pans out.
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