Arctic Air and Snow Potential : Next Week

UPDATE: Fri 4 Feb 2010 / 5:50p.m.

Milder weather Sat-Sun will melt much of the road ice, but some snow and ice will still be on Texoma yards into next week, and many small bodies of water will remain frozen.

Some rain or snow is possible Sunday with the next fast-moving front and trough. Be sure and tune in to Megan Krannig for updates this weekend.

No changes to the extended forecast blog posted below. The present NW flow pattern and ridge over the eastern Pacific supports another arctic outbreak next week, and the trough position shown by all of the models, one of which is shown below. This has the potential to be another significant winter weather event Tue-Wed.


======Previous post from Thursday======= 

Looking into next week, the models are consistent again today with the steering flow forecast for next week, and it’s not good news if you’re tired of the cold. A ridge aloft over the Gulf of Alaska, similar to the pattern which formed this week’s arctic air mass, will allow a new batch of cold to re-load over northern Canada and head southward (discussion continues below map):
                         ECMWF model is consistent with itself; this steering flow map is for Sunday 6pm
The amplified (north-to-south) flow aloft should push this frigid blob through Texoma Sunday night-Monday, followed by another windy and cold shot Wednesday.
The Wednesday frontal passage will be supported by a fairly strong trough aloft (more below):
This set-up suggests a chance of ice or snow once again. In fact it’s quite similar to the Feb 1st event: Bitterly cold arctic air at the surface, over-running southerly flow above the arctic dome of cold, mid-level trough coming in from the west providing strong lift.
Significant ice or snow amounts are possible but it’s too early to call this one. However the cold portion of the forecast looks quite likely.
Bottom line:
  • My confidence is high that we’ll see more very cold air next week.
  • My confidence is moderate that we’ll see some accumulating ice or snow the middle of next week.
  • Temperatures will not be quite as cold as this week, but lows could reach the low teens depending on clouds and wind by later next week.
  • Dangerously low wind chills will accompany the Wednesday system.
An update to this blog will posted by 7pm Friday.
Take Care,
Steve LaNore
Chief Meteorologist
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Comments are posted from viewers like you and do not always reflect the views of this station.
  • by shenara Location: denison on Feb 9, 2011 at 03:19 PM
  • by Brandon Location: Sherman on Feb 5, 2011 at 06:38 PM
    The data I'm looking at suggest we could get into the single digits Thursday morning. I know your currently forecasting 11, but what is the record Thu AM? Hmm...
  • by Brandon Location: Sherman on Feb 5, 2011 at 06:36 PM
    Good afternoon. It looks like with the GFS particularly each model run seems to make it a little stronger and wetter. Do you agree, Steve? There also seems to be a large agreement amongst most models that this will be a very "large" and widespread storm. I'm guess 3 to 7 inches accumulation with some areas greater than 8 inches. I know its difficult to forecast this far out; however, with the high confidence of this storm and continued agreement on models for several days now do you have an accumulation speculation? (unoffically?) :)
  • by sherman on Feb 4, 2011 at 09:06 PM
    i second that way over shot!
  • by D Conn Location: Pottsboro on Feb 4, 2011 at 06:43 AM
    I think we over shot the 1 inch this am
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