Cold Fronts Next Week: New Blog

I’m (still) forecasting two fronts to move by during Jan 17-21; one on Mon-Tue and the second one Thursday.

 Both of these fronts will have cold Canadian air behind them; the second one could tap into some arctic air but that is somewhat uncertain at this point.

 It will be quite windy behind both systems as the low-level winds map shows for Front #1 on Tuesday.

 Front #2 presents more of a forecast challenge: The FNMOC brings in arctic air behind it for Thursday, while the GFS shows a cold front with a less pronounced chill:

 

 

 The ECMWF has been the most accurate all winter on fronts and cold air intensity, and it has been rather consistent the past two days regarding these systems. It is in between the GFS and FNMOC temperature solutions, so I guess I’m guilty of “splitting the difference” this time!

The ECMWF shows the air behind Thursday’s front to be colder than Tuesday’s but not as cold as the Jan 9-13 period:

 

The GFS is the least trustworthy model this go-round; it generally does quite poorly in the 4-6 day time frame only to “lock in” on the more likely solution inside of 72 hours. The GFS does not resolve shallow cold air masses well and this can be an Achilles’ heel for it during the winter months.

One caveat: over-trusting the models can get you into a bad forecast really fast. Today’s Canadian analysis shows -40-degree air over the Northwestern Territories, even colder than what wound up in Texoma this week. Therefore, a day-to-day monitoring of trends will be needed to see if we’re too optimistic on the kind of cold we’ll get for next week.

So we’ll hide and watch….and I will update this blog from home later this weekend (Sunday).

Have a Great Weekend!

Take Care,

 

Steve LaNore

Chief Meteorologist

KXII-TV

 

Read More Blogs

You must be logged in to post comments.

Username:
Password (case sensitive):
Remember Me:

Read Comments

Comments are posted from viewers like you and do not always reflect the views of this station.
  • by mr Location: denison on Jan 25, 2011 at 02:20 PM
    The national weather and dallas weather forecasts are predicting highs in the mid 60's this weekend, the 29th and 30th, you are predicing highs in the mid 40's, is there a reason for the big difference
  • by Steve LaNore Location: KXII-TV on Jan 19, 2011 at 03:04 PM
    Friends, The snow event should have been no surprise to you if you watched two days before and one day before. Three day forecasts will by nature contain more error than a shorter-term outlook. So sure, I didn't put any snow in my Thursday forecast for a snowfall event that took place SUNDAY, three days later. Science has its limits and each scientist interprets things differently...so how about a little slack? Yall stay warm...Steve
  • by jeff Location: denison on Jan 19, 2011 at 08:41 AM
    to me being conservative is one thing, but in this winter weather situation I would rather go over board and say there will be snow and sleet then to say like Steve did last time, little or no accumlations then we get 4 inches. I would rather warn the public about the possibilites then to say little or nothing then people get out with confidence and then get surprised. Just saying.
  • by Brandon Location: Sherman on Jan 18, 2011 at 09:04 PM
    Question about your forecasting.. Do each of you write your own forecast for the given time frame that your working? Just curious..
  • by Brandon on Jan 18, 2011 at 08:55 PM
    Everything is great Steve, and I appologize about my conservative comments. I generally meant its one thing for me as a person to say "yay its going to snow".. v.s. you as kxii's meteorologist to officially put snow in a forecast, 2 completely different things. :)
  • by Steve LaNore Location: KXII-TV on Jan 18, 2011 at 04:03 PM
    Dear readers, Thanks for all sincere comments and I appreciate the interest! As for "conservative" forecasts, some are while others of mine will be more aggressive. This varies with the pattern and model trends as well as what's actually going on. So when I pull back a little it's because there's not much use in going beyond what I can say with some scientific confidence. It’s easy to say “this will happen or that will happen”…but I have to be careful that it’s a forecast and not just a dart thrown in the dark. Sometimes the difference between those can be small! There is a chance of frozen precipitation Thursday...mainly north of highway over S. OK. It will be one of these marginal situations....a new blog has been posted above. Take Care, Steve
  • by Anonymous on Jan 17, 2011 at 03:03 PM
    KXII, good move on updating your forecast to include the possibility of winter precip. I do feel like the majority of Texoma will see something. It will be interesting to see how fast the cold air moves south over the next 48 hours..
  • by James Hensley Location: Ladonia on Jan 17, 2011 at 02:28 PM
    Brandon, I totaly agree with you on KXII being conservative and I dont blame them. I wouldnt want to put my neck out there and be wrong. I just wanted to know Steves thoughts on what is going on. Pick his brain alittle.
  • by Heather on Jan 17, 2011 at 01:23 PM
    I have NO idea how you are so good at your job, Steve. I have tried to "predict" scientifically through the NWS models, etc. I am horrible. Everything says something different. In my attempts, I was only given a head ache ;) Keep up the good work!
  • by Brandon on Jan 17, 2011 at 08:57 AM
    James, it seems like KXII is being more conservative (which I can't blame him/them when your broadcasting to such a large audience) Its alot easier, for you and I to speculate and analyze the potential for a winter weather event rather than for them to put it in their forecast until confidence is higher. I personally feel by all the data I see, and am continuing to see that areas of north central Texas will see sleet and snow. And I agree with you said about the GFS bringing the warm front north, a very common mistake by this model in this type of situation.
  • Page:
Sherman 4201 Texoma Pkwy (903) 892 -8123 Ardmore 2624 S. Commerce (580) 223-0946
Copyright © 2002-2016 - Designed by Gray Digital Media - Powered by Clickability
Gray Television, Inc.