2 Cold Fronts Coming, but Freeze Unlikely

UPDATE: Mon 21 March 2011 / 3:00p.m.

The Vernal Equinox took place Sunday, heralding the astronomical beginning of spring. Of course, our weather has been spring-like for much of March. 

The overall steering winds pattern does not favor a deep intrusion of cold air during the next week; a couple of cooler air masses do penetrate into Texoma during the 7-day period, but neither looks cold enough to push lows below freezing.

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UPDATE: Fri 18 March 2011 / 9:30p.m.

Friday's model runs continue to show some cool air heading southward late next week, but the steering flow is looking less favorable to push the core of this coolness into Texoma.

I'm not ready to give an "all-clear" yet on a frost/freeze threat, but the odds for one March 25th or 26th seem to be dwindling. The surface pattern taking shape is not quite the same as the models portrayed a few days ago, with the surface high showing up further north and east now. This means a milder cool-down for us.

If you read the older posts below you can see how the long-range outlook seemed locked in and then changes. This is a good example of forecasting limitations beyond a few days.

Look for a new post Monday on this subject.

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UPDATE: Thu 17 March 2011 / 10:30p.m.

The overall outlook remains the same, with a chilly Canadian air mass moving southward the middle of next week. This will not be a big cold wave, but the dry and cool air will present a frost/freeze threat March 25-26...with daytime temperatures likely to be quite pleasant. Newest map is first one below.

=========OLDER POSTS IN THIS BLOG ARE BELOW========

 

UPDATE: Wed 16 March 2011 / 3:35p.m.

Indications remain the same as previously posted (below) for a frost or freeze threat late next week.

Daytime highs would still be quite mild with sunny skies, so we're looking at a situation similar to Tuesday morning, when we had a heavy frost followed by a pleasant afternoon.

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The average last spring freeze for areas of Texoma north of the Red River is late March; nature may be right on the money for 2011 with the potential for another freeze in the Mar 25-26 time frame.

Several computer outputs (GFS, ECMWF, and FNMOC) point to a ridge developing aloft over central Canada early next week. This will pull a region of very cold surface air southward from the arctic north. It is indicated to move into Texoma March 24-25, with coldest morning lows on either the 25th or 26th./
This large bubble of cold high pressure would likely bring dry and chilly air, which could allow for a hard freeze if conditions evolve as indicated.
We’re still a week or so away from the frontal passage, so a lot could change. A better idea of the freeze potential will be available as we move inside the 5-day window this Friday.
In the meantime, there’s no threat of a freeze with the windy and warm pattern evolving through Friday. In fact, we’re looking at highs in the 80s by then.
Take Care,
Steve LaNore
Chief Meteorologist
KXII-TV
 
 
 
 
 

 

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