UPDATE: Wed 12 Jan 2011 / 10:45p.m.
There's not much change in today's model output as to timing: front #1 shows up Monday/Tuesday with Front #2 arriving Thursday.
The coldness of the air behind each of these fronts is uncertain, but expect a cool-down after "less cold' air this weekend.
A more complete discussion with new maps will be posted Thursday evening when more products will become available.
Frigid nights will give way to milder weather as the weekend approaches. I wouldn't be surprised to see very small lakes and ponds completely frozen over with a thin sheet of ice by Thursday or Friday morning, but it will get warmer and melt that off over the weekend.
Next week looks interesting once again as two fronts are in the cards. The models are generally suggesting a glancing blow air of cold Monday, but nothing to the level of our current northern blast.
A second more intense shot of cold is now showing up in the pattern by next Thursday. This air mass has the potential to be extremely cold as it is pulled across the North Pole from Russia.
Based on the blocking trends (high to the north of a low) we’ve seen the past two months, I’d say there’s a fair chance of some type of return arctic visit mid-to-late next week (discussion continues below map).
As for snow…I’m just not going there this far out. Given the potential error, there’s little point. One note: the climatology of the event shown on the map points to a dry event most of the time.
This is a way out from a high-confidence point of view. Nevertheless, it will be one focus of my blogs through the next few days. So we may be facing more big-time cold next week…or the whole thing could fizzle into nothingness.
I will also post a blog regarding the observed lows of this current cold spell sometime Wednesday afternoon.