FINAL UPDATE: 10:20 p.m Wed 7 May 2014
There's really no change to the previous update: a very moist air mass will interact with an approaching trough and surface cold front to generate widespread rainfall Thursday (May 8).
Amounts will range from one to three inches; the rainfall rates may be over an inch per hour, so localized flooding is possible. The latest HPC rainfall projection is shown here:
UPDATE: 9:40 p.m. Tue 6 May 2014
There is strong consistency among both our in-house high resolution models and several other NOAA products we use, so it's looking likely parts of the News 12 viewing area will receive 1 to 2 inches of rain on Thursday. The latest map here is from the HPC and reflects their precipitation forecast, which looks good:
A final update will be posted Wednesday evening.
Mon 5 May 1995 / 10:20 p.m.
Texoma may cash in on some soaking rainfall Thursday-Friday as a slow-moving cold front and mid-level trough interact with a steady return flow of moisture from the Gulf.
The uncertainty is with an upper ridge parked over the Gulf; the sinking air associated with it has placed a stout “cap” over Texoma, and the air flow around the ridge will help to deflect the strongest portion of the trough to our north:
The red arrows indicate the flow around the ridge while the blue "L" shows the primary trough's core. The dashed white line represents a second weaker trough which may keep a chance of rain in our forecast for Friday.
Model runs indicate the heaviest rainfall taking place over northern Oklahoma closer to the upper level support, but Texoma could get some decent rainfall of an inch to possibly two inches.
There’s considerable uncertainty on exactly how the gears of this rain machine will mesh, so I will be posting an update Tuesday night and again Wednesday night.
Weather Authority / News 12