HPC forecast places heavy rain "bullseye" right over Texoma. Map updated 9:30p.m. Thursday.
Excessive rainfall potential revisits Texoma for the first half of the weekend thanks to a very slow-moving low pressure aloft.
This system is in the 10,000 to 30,000 foot range. The flow around it governs the movement of surface- based features like cold fronts and dry lines. The Red River Valley will be in the SE quadrant of its influence Thursday and Friday. Since the winds around the southeastern side of the low blow from the south or SW, the dry line and cold front which is a part of this system will “crawl” eastward Thursday through Saturday. They will generate showers and storms as they progress east. Some could be severe Thursday or Friday.
The highest potential for soaking rainfall runs Friday afternoon through Saturday morning.
The precise timing is tough to call since the system is poking along at such a leisurely pace, but high moisture content and the extra lift provided by the slow-moving low aloft spell a good chance for heavy rainfall in the Fri-Sat time frame.