Given the expected pattern it’s pretty safe to say we’ve seen the last freeze of the 2011-2012 winter season.  Below are some last freeze dates for various Texoma cities observed this spring:

 Ada…30…March 10

Antlers…..31…March 10

Ardmore…32…March 4

Atoka…32…March 10

Bonham...30...Feb 21

Durant…32…Feb 13

Gainesville…32…Feb 21

Hugo…30…Feb. 25

Madill…28…March 4

Marietta…30…March 5

Paris…32…Feb 13

Sherman-Denison…32...Feb 19

Sulphur…32…March 10

Tishomingo…31…March 4

The last freeze dates shown above are 3 to 4 weeks earlier than normal, making for some of the earliest last spring freezes on record.

The outlook through the end of May calls for continued above average temperatures. The precipitation outlook is more difficult to predict because we are in a “neutral” pattern, which means neither an El Nino nor a La Nina in place.

However, I expect a fairly dry pattern April 1-15 as a strong ridge is indicated to develop over the southwestern U.S (discussion continues below map):

If this happens, we can expect lots of warm and dry weather. A weaker ridge would allow for upper lows to move across from the west and bring more stormy weather our way for the period.

I’m siding with the drier trend based on the overall pattern and recent changes in the steering flow.

Take Care,

Steve LaNore

Chief Meteorologist

KXII-TV