May is (normally) the peak severe weather month of the year, but the first 10 days of May 2011 have been very quiet with only 7 tornadoes reported in the entire nation. This follows the highest U.S. tornado count on record for April.
However, the May 2011 tornado total might be moving upward as a significant severe weather event evolves Wednesday May 11th. Here are the elements coming into play:
- A deep mid-level low (map above)
- A very fast jet stream rounding the southern side of the low
- Strong daytime heating
- High low-level moisture values (dewpoints 65 to 70)
- Dry Line
This is a fairly classic mid-May severe outbreak and all types of damaging weather including tornadoes are possible.
Impacts for Texoma are most likely Wednesday evening through early Thursday. Locally heavy rainfall of 1 to 2 inches might accompany the system, especially east of I-35.
We’ll be keeping a close watch on this one.