UPDATE: Fri 11 April / 9:30 p.m.
The latest model guidance continues to show a good chance of rain especially for the eastern half of Texoma; strong wind shear could lead to dangerous supercell thunderstorms on Sunday if they manage to form ahead of an advancing cold front.
If storms instead form along the front, then strong winds or hail may occur, but the tornado threat will be much lower. We will just have to see how it comes together on Sunday.
UPDATE: Thu 10 April 8:40 p.m.
The forecast remains the same for Sunday's rainfall: heaviest along and east of Highway 75. There seems to be a little better potential for severe weather Sunday; I will update this blog again Friday evening.
Texoma looks to get a shot at some “decent” rainfall amounts for the second time this April on Sunday, April 13.
A fast-moving cold front will interact with a mid-level trough and very strong inflow winds to set the stage for a line of thunderstorms to develop. There’s a low-end threat of severe weather with gusty winds or hail accompanying the storms, but heavy rainfall is also possible, and more likely than severe weather.
The latest HPC forecast for precipitation during the event suggests over an inch of rain is possible - mainly over the eastern half of the area. I have modified their forecast just a bit to fit in with my current outlook. Here's the map:
Stay tuned: I will post updates to this blog Thursday and Friday.
Chief Meteorologist/News 12