Next Blast 'O Cold: Tue UPDATE

UPDATE: Tue 25 Jan 2011 / 5:40p.m.

The steering currents and latest surface temperature trends point to a later frontal passage...probably Sunday evening or Monday. See my newest blog about snow potential next week.

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The next big weather change will probably take place this weekend as a strong cold front sweeps through.

 

The air mass along and ahead of the front will be very dry, so some clouds may form with it due to low-level lifting, but rain or snow is unlikely.

 

I often talk about model outputs when dealing with the extended forecast (beyond a couple of days) because we rely on them more the further away we get from today’s weather.

 

The computer guidance is all over the road for this weekend, but the European (ECMWF) model is again the most consistent on a Saturday frontal passage. Snow-cover extends as far south as Kansas, so this helps keep the air from warming on its southward trek. The air mass building over  northern Canada is the coldest I have seen this winter with several stations reporting -40 or lower readings at mid-day Monday.

 

 

However, that doesn’t mean the super cold air will make it to Texoma. Steering currents and surface pressure changes over the next few days will tell the tale of where this air is going. Intensely cold air is very dense compared to warmer air, and will often surge southward faster than expected.

 

My confidence is only moderate right now due to the model disagreement especially at the steering flow level, and surface pressure forecasts. We will be close enough for me to stake a better claim on our weekend forecast by Wednesday.

 

  

 

Take Care,

 

 

Steve LaNore

 

Chief Meteorologist

 

KXII-TV

 

 

 

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