Soaking Rains March 10-11

UPDATE: Thursday 8 March 2012 / 5:40 p.m.

The heavy rain event has been delayed by a stronger-than-expected surface high pushing the cold frontal boundary deep into south Texas.

The maximum rain intensity is now zeroed in on the weekend with the amounts shown on the map below valid for March 10-11 at 2 to 3 inches.

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UPDATE: Mon 5 March 2012 / 6 p.m.

A slow-moving low in the mid levels of the atmosphere will trudge eastward mid-week, while Gulf moisture zips northward on the heels of 30-40mph southerly winds.

The lift provided by the low should generate widespread rainfall. The low will become partially “cut-off” from the main steering flow, so rain may persist in an on-and-off fashion for several days.

This is good news for area lakes and soils as we haven’t a soaking rainfall since Feb 18th.

Rainfall potential appears to be in the 2 to 3 inch range:

                        The contours over Texoma forecast a real soaker here.

A change in the expected track, speed, or intensity of the upper low will raise or lower the total.

Severe weather appears to be of low risk right now, but it is spring and any storm system bears watching for severe potential. The target days for stronger storms are Thursday or Friday. Rain may linger into Sunday depending on when the low moves away.

Take Care,

Steve LaNore

Chief Meteorologist

KXII-TV

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Comments are posted from viewers like you and do not always reflect the views of this station.
  • by Steve LaNore Location: KXII-TV on Mar 6, 2012 at 03:23 PM
    Severe potential is not zero, but is rather low since I expect showers to be ongoing ahead of the front, which limits energy from daytime heating and reduces severe potential. Wind shear looks to be moderate so an isolated severe storm is possible...but again, a general severe event is not expected.
  • by Anonymous Location: Springer on Mar 5, 2012 at 07:05 PM
    Do you think any of these storms will become severe?
  • by rebecca Location: denison on Mar 5, 2012 at 06:31 AM
    Love these rain chances! After last summer I don't know if I'll ever see enough rain. For all of us gardeners, do you have a guess as to when the last frost for our area might be?
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