UPDATE: Thursday 8 March 2012 / 5:40 p.m.
The heavy rain event has been delayed by a stronger-than-expected surface high pushing the cold frontal boundary deep into south Texas.
The maximum rain intensity is now zeroed in on the weekend with the amounts shown on the map below valid for March 10-11 at 2 to 3 inches.
UPDATE: Mon 5 March 2012 / 6 p.m.
A slow-moving low in the mid levels of the atmosphere will trudge eastward mid-week, while Gulf moisture zips northward on the heels of 30-40mph southerly winds.
The lift provided by the low should generate widespread rainfall. The low will become partially “cut-off” from the main steering flow, so rain may persist in an on-and-off fashion for several days.
This is good news for area lakes and soils as we haven’t a soaking rainfall since Feb 18th.
Rainfall potential appears to be in the 2 to 3 inch range:
The contours over Texoma forecast a real soaker here.
A change in the expected track, speed, or intensity of the upper low will raise or lower the total.
Severe weather appears to be of low risk right now, but it is spring and any storm system bears watching for severe potential. The target days for stronger storms are Thursday or Friday. Rain may linger into Sunday depending on when the low moves away.