Severe Outbreak Potential: April 27th

Texoma may get its first widespread severe weather of the season on Sunday, April 27 - here's why.

UPDATE: 12:25 p.m. Sat 26 April 2014

A risk of severe weather moves across Texoma from west to east overnight; since the storms are expected to weaken a bit as they travel east, the primary threat for damaging weather is along and west of Highway 75 overnight.

The greatest risk for severe storms and possible tornadoes Sunday is in the eastern half of Texoma; it may very well be that strong to severe storms are in progress Sunday morning, then the pattern moves eastward during the day.

More intense storms would re-form by mid-afternoon. As I have been saying, the exact position of the dry line at mid-day will govern who's in the target zone for Sunday afternoon/evening. If you are to the west of the dry line Sunday afternoon you will have no risk of severe weather and will instead have windy and very warm conditions. Be sure and check in with Tom Hale this evening for the latest model output and his analysis.

Here's the latest SPC assessment of Sunday's risk:

 

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UPDATE: 7:10 p.m. Fri 25 April 2014

***NOTE: This blog is mainly focused on Sunday's severe potential, but please also be aware that there is a risk of severe weather Saturday night/Sunday morning along and west of Highway 75.***

The model trends on Friday afternoon/evening were shifting the dry line just a little bit farther to the east for Sunday:

The dry line is shown where there's a quick change in contour color from blue to green and brown.

                                          4 p.m. NAM output for Sunday.

 

If this trend continues, then a smaller portion of Texoma would be faced with tornado potential on Sunday. HOWEVER...I believe there will definitely be a tornado risk for at least the eastern portion of the area, and as I've been saying this really will be right down to the wire on Sunday morning as to where the dry line is when heating begins in the early afternoon.

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UPDATE: 5:40 p.m. Thu 24 April 2014

The new SPC severe weather outlook for Saturday is given below. Scroll farther down for another new map added with this update.

Basically, there has been very little change in the model output positions of the features coming into play. The Sunday severe coverage will hinge on the position of the dry line at noon. Severe storms will almost certainly fire along it in the early afternoon Sunday, probably from I-35 eastward.

BUT...75 miles either way could make a huge difference on impacts to Texoma, and it will probably be Sunday morning before that level of precision can be achieved. But the threat is real and considerable.

 

 

 And.....here's the latest surface dewpoint map...showing the dryline:

The above map is from the NAM model 1 p.m. Thursday run and is valid for 4 p.m. Sunday.

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UPDATE: 8:45 p.m. Wed 23 April 2014

Things look about the same as last night regarding the weekend severe weather set-up. I think the models are pushing the dry line too fast to the east on Sunday (they did this yesterday too)...so the dry line could lie just west of I-35 at mid-afternoon Sunday...making for dangerous storm potential (when all of the other ingredients are factored in).

The dry line will be the key: if it DOES shift farther east Sunday before mid-day then we will get a break from the severe...it's a case where 100 miles will make all of the difference. The model output is very consistent with my post on Tuesday so I'm leaving these maps the same for now..

 

>>>A very deep mid-and upper-level trough will be swinging across the southwestern United States:                          

    >>>A well-defined dry line will set up across west Texas and move eastward into Texoma:


                                          

>>>The Gulf will be wide open with a very strong low-level jet and humid air blowing through the Red River Valley:

 

>>>Wind shear values look to be favorable for the formation of supercells (rotating thunderstorms) both Saturday and Sunday. That's why the Storm Prediction Center has us outlined in an area of concern for D4 (Saturday) and D5 (Sunday), but primarily Sunday for the bulk of Texoma:

 

 It looks like most of the activity would remain over western Texas and Oklahoma Saturday, but our western zones may have to keep a wary eye to the sky.

However, Sunday puts all of Texoma squarely in the path of a significant severe weather potential.

Stay tuned.

 

Take Care,

Steve LaNore

Chief Meteorologist/News 12

 

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