Severe Storms Possible Friday

Update: Thu 21 Oct 2010

New map posted Thursday is below. Discussion of the severe risk percentages is new, forecast is essentially the same:

The 30% zone on the map below means a 30% chance of severe weather happening within 25 miles of any one point inside the red area. That's a mouthful, isn't it?

To truly understand what this means, one must know what the "normal" chance for severe storms at any one point would be in late October. Let's say it's 1%; the actual value is somewhere in this range. So the red zone has a 30 times greater than average chance for severe weather tomorrow.

This doesn't mean an apocalyptic weather event; it simply points to ramped up odds which will probably correspond to some severe weather in this zone. In a similar fashion, the 15% and 5% areas are under the gun, but less so than the 30% area.

Here are the primary factors:

>>>> Increasing wind shear

>>>>A stiff southerly wind develops providing deep moisture

>>>>Strong lift provided by mid-level low and dry line (discussion continues below map)

Limiting factors:

Time of day storms arrive; a late-morning arrival Friday would tend to provide a pocket of rain-cooled air which may not have time to re-heat during the short October afternoon.

Dry line position: If it remains further west than expected, storms could dissipate before reaching Texoma, or at least weaken.

This is essentially a spring-type situation taking place in October.

Take Care,
Steve LaNore
Chief Meteorologist



Read More Blogs
Comments are posted from viewers like you and do not always reflect the views of this station.
powered by Disqus
Sherman 4201 Texoma Pkwy (903) 892 -8123 Ardmore 2624 S. Commerce (580) 223-0946
Copyright © 2002-2015 - Designed by Gray Digital Media - Powered by Clickability
Gray Television, Inc.