Severe Storms Possible Friday

Update: Thu 21 Oct 2010

New map posted Thursday is below. Discussion of the severe risk percentages is new, forecast is essentially the same:

The 30% zone on the map below means a 30% chance of severe weather happening within 25 miles of any one point inside the red area. That's a mouthful, isn't it?

To truly understand what this means, one must know what the "normal" chance for severe storms at any one point would be in late October. Let's say it's 1%; the actual value is somewhere in this range. So the red zone has a 30 times greater than average chance for severe weather tomorrow.

This doesn't mean an apocalyptic weather event; it simply points to ramped up odds which will probably correspond to some severe weather in this zone. In a similar fashion, the 15% and 5% areas are under the gun, but less so than the 30% area.

Here are the primary factors:

>>>> Increasing wind shear

>>>>A stiff southerly wind develops providing deep moisture

>>>>Strong lift provided by mid-level low and dry line (discussion continues below map)

Limiting factors:

Time of day storms arrive; a late-morning arrival Friday would tend to provide a pocket of rain-cooled air which may not have time to re-heat during the short October afternoon.

Dry line position: If it remains further west than expected, storms could dissipate before reaching Texoma, or at least weaken.

This is essentially a spring-type situation taking place in October.

Take Care,
Steve LaNore
Chief Meteorologist



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Comments are posted from viewers like you and do not always reflect the views of this station.
  • by Thomas Location: Sherwood Shores on Oct 23, 2010 at 09:06 PM
    Sorry naoma. Warm is good, but scorching Texoma summers are bad (very bad). I'll take a 40 degree day over a 103 degree day anytime!
  • by Mykayla Location: Windom Tx on Oct 21, 2010 at 09:46 PM
    I hope we will not get a tornado with this severe storm becaues iam afraid of tornados.
  • by naoma Location: marietta on Oct 21, 2010 at 08:09 PM
    i wonder why all of you can't enjoy the warm weather instead of wanting cold .and puting football as a best thing on earth concerning the weather, there are other things in life ,like us older folks need ing to stay warm as long as god will keep the good weather coming, i don't know if you all remember last year, but i do, snow from november to march ,myself trapsing out in it to feed chickens and birds, i do not look forward to that but will take and be happy with the blessings god gives me, warm is good...
  • by Jessica Location: Marietta, OK on Oct 21, 2010 at 07:39 PM
    I keep hearing more and more about the great chances for severe weather tomorrow. How severe are we talking? Tornado weather? :(
  • by Jon Location: denison on Oct 20, 2010 at 11:44 PM
    was looking at national weather channel website. looks like they aare expecting warmemr than normal and drier than normal from october to end of december. I am thinking we are in for a warm winter. ha
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