Lately I’ve been getting some questions about our snow chances during the remainder of this winter season.
You might recall that a few spots did receive some snow back in early December, but most of us missed that one. Snow or ice can form as long as enough moisture, lift and cold air are present.
January 2012 has been very warm overall despite a couple of brief cold spells. This is consistent with a La Nina pattern. La Nina occurs when waters over the eastern Pacific become colder than average. This oceanic shift helps form an atmospheric circulation regime which favors a ridge aloft over the western U.S. Most of the cold air is diverted north and east by the jet stream (discussion continues below map):
This brings mild and dry weather for the southern Plains, including Texoma. Precipitation tends to be below normal with temperatures above normal in this situation. The National Weather Service forecast says there's a greater than even-money chance for a warm pattern to continue through March, with about equal chances for wetter, drier, or near-normal precipitation.
Given these factors, the overall odds of snow or ice before this winter ends are lower than average….but still possible.