UPDATE: Wed 26 Jan 2011 / 6p.m.
New model map (just below) is similar to yesterday's thinking with frozen precipitation potential zeroing in on Tuesday (discussion continues below map):
Will February start off with winter scenes in Texoma? Well....we are talking about snow potential (again!) for the Red River Valley early next week.
Bitterly cold air will continue to build over northern Canada into the weekend. Steering currents appear less favorable for pushing this air into Texoma before Sunday night.
This is not a clear-cut situation because the very cold arctic air can sometimes overcome marginal upper air conditions, but what’s particularly interesting is a winter precipitation potential early next week once the cold air shows up. This precipitation would be in response to a mid-level low moving our way.
The models are not much help today as they are all over the road on the position of the low next Monday/Tuesday.
However, the general flow aloft is agreed upon by several different products. A ridge to our west and trough to our east favors an unstable NW flow with frequent mid-level disturbances. We’ve seen several of these pass in the past week (discussion continues below maps):
Surface temperatures should easily be cold enough to support freezing rain/sleet/snow early next week….but the timing and intensity of the event is much more in question. For now, I’ve included a 20% chance of snow for Monday night/Tuesday.
I’m quite sure this outlook will need to be adjusted more than once over the next few days.