FINAL Update: Wed 23 Nov 2011 / 5:35 p.m.
The Thanksgiving forecast remains consistent from what we expected when I began this blog a week ago: dry, breezy and mild.
Thanksgiving will have generally good weather expected, but there might be some early morning fog. It should break up quickly as wind picks up out of the south and becomes rather gusty into the afternoon.
Good fortune for Friday shoppers as MOST of the rain looks to wait until after sunset and through the morning hours of Saturday. It will be very windy and quite chilly Saturday and Sunday.
May you have a blessed Holiday weekend - Steve
UPDATE: Tue 22 Nov 2011 / 9:15 p.m.
The weather pattern looks rather stable for Thanksgiving Day, with one concern: low-level moisture will linger due to a weak wind field, so some locally dense fog is possible Thursday morning. It may linger for several hours before we enjoy a sunny Thanksgiving afternoon. Rain is expected Friday-Saturday with the latest trends pointing more toward late Friday and into Saturday. Expect windy and cold conditions Saturday afternoon through Sunday.
A final update will be posted Wednesday evening.
UPDATE: Mon 21 Nov 2011 / 11:15 p.m.
I'm pleased to report no changes to my Thanksgiving Day Outlook, or the days beyond. The uncertainty lies with how much rain Friday, and how windy and cold Sat-Sun. As for Thanksgiving...may you have a most excellent one - feel free to check back for a fresh update late Tuesday.
UPDATE: Mon 21 Nov 2011 / 12:30 a.m.
The latest trends continue my thinking from last week: Wednesday and Thanksgiving Day will be great days for travel, with cold mornings and mild afternoons. Friday will be windy with rain potential as a mid-level trough passes by.
Windy and colder weather is expected Saturday behind a polar cold front. Rain should move out leaving some of Saturday dry. Expect windy and chilly weather for Saturday and Sunday. See new map below:
6am Saturday 26 Nov: Front passes leaving most of weekend windy and cool, but probably dry.
UPDATE: Sat 19 Nov 2011 / 9:20 p.m.
The forecast for Thanksgiving Day remains the same, but rain is possible Friday and into Saturday. The map below shows the model output for noon Thanksgiving Day with gusty winds but stable air with high pressure in control:
UPDATE: Fri 18 November 2011 No changes to forecast thinking of the past two days....the pattern remains quite stable in regards to the timing of high pressure and breezy conditions for Thanksgiving.
UPDATE: 9:30 p.m. Thu 17 November 2011
There's no significant change to my previous outlook given below. The pattern looks fairly stable in regards to the timing and strength of the next two weather systems.
A fresh update will be posted Friday night at around 10:30. The later post time will allow for new model to come in before this update is posted. Have a great weekend - Steve
Thanksgiving might conjure up images of aroma-filled dining rooms, hot chocolate, and brisk north winds outside making it all the more cozy inside. This begs the question, “will the weather help it feel like Thanksgiving in Texoma this year?”
We’re in a La Nina fall/winter pattern which is one reason it has been very warm the past few weeks, with only short cold spells to break up the spring-ish temperatures. This weekend will once again see warm and windy weather.
A Canadian air mass will provide a glancing blow of cooler air by Sunday/Monday, but southerly winds quickly return by Monday night and Tuesday. There’s a good chance of rain if a mid-level low moves by as expected early next week. A fresh frontal boundary is pushed through by Wednesday as high pressure settles in from the northwest. This should make the day before Thanksgiving very nice for travel with sunshine and seasonable temperatures.
The pattern quickly changes again on Thanksgiving Day as southerly winds and warmer weather return.
A front and upper trough point to increasing rain chances Friday, with cooler weather tumbling in for Saturday.
Thanksgiving Day Outlook: A.M. Fog / Sunny / Breezy: Lows 30s, Highs 67-73
Day after Thanksgiving Outlook: Partly to Mostly Cloudy / Chance of Rain / Windy: Lows 50s, Highs 60s / Rain Mainly Late
Saturday: Windy / Colder / Chance of Rain / Lows 40s / Highs 50s
Sunday: Partly Cloudy and Windy / Lows 30s Highs 40s-near 50