Strong/Severe Storms in Thursday Outlook

UPDATE: Tue 22 Feb 2010 / 5:50p.m.

Model trends though Tuesday afternoon support the slight northward and eastward shift of the severe potential. SPC has Texoma on the edge of a larger area of severe storm potential located mainly to our east, with Arkansas at a 30% risk while Texoma is at 5% west to15% east.

One key factor will be how fast the dry line and mid-level trough move by Thursday. Latest indications are for a slightly faster movement which matches up with a higher severe threat to our east.


 ==================Monday discussion below


Our first round of strong to severe thunderstorms in 2011 may take place this Thursday (Feb 24th).


 It’s a rather ”typical" set up for strong to severe storms:



  • A plume of moisture moving northward from the Gulf
  • A cold front moving in from the NW, with a dry line preceding it by a few hours
  • A mid-level low coming in from the west (provides more lifting)
  • Low-level wind shear (promotes rotation in thunderstorms)
  • Jet max: Another source for producing stronger updrafts


Of course there are uncertainties including:

 Timing: if system passes earlier in the day, heating would be limited, reducing the instability of the air

 Mid-level low: It is indicated to be weakening as it moves through Oklahoma Thursday, with an axis extending southward into Texas. If this trough weakens more than expected, this would also reduce severe potential. A northward shift in the track would also lower severe chances here.

 Surface low: Will be the "triple point" where cold front and dry line meet; latest indications carry this low about 100 miles to our north. This track is less favorable for widespread severe in Texoma.

 Jet max: Enhanced lifting tends to be close to the feature, so its location will partially govern where the strongest storms form (discussion continues below map).


Latest thoughts:

 Monday evening model trends are rather consistent with runs from Monday morning, but the wind field is coming in a bit weaker on the southern side of the system (the side nearest to us). The surface low is also indicated to track to our north (see map above).

The most likely result from these factors would place the stronger storms over the eastern half of Texoma (east of Highway 377) Thursday afternoon along the dry line, with lower storm chances further west. If the surface low tracks along the Red River, we'd get a lot more rough weather but right now that does not look as likely.

 So the risk looks definite but slight for severe storms, with a pretty decent chance of rain in any case.

I will post a new blog as a final update to this thread Wednesday before 6p.m.

 Take Care,

 Steve LaNore

 Chief Meteorologist









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  • by tyler Location: pottsboro on Feb 24, 2011 at 07:54 PM
    i absolutely love severe weather. i cant wait for tornado season to really kick in!
  • by Steve LaNore Location: KXII-TV on Feb 24, 2011 at 02:09 PM
    Greg, I witnessed a very intense "thundersleet" during the January 1978 Fort Worth ice storm. What a mess...but it was exciting! Take Care, Steve
  • by greg Location: pilot point on Feb 23, 2011 at 04:51 PM
    yeah---i kinda wish the dryline would slow down just a bit ---i'm ready for the first good round of thunderstorms-ALTHOUGH I DID SEE---SOME LIGHTNING during the first sleet and then snow storm---have only witnessed this one time in 53 years of weather watching---it's a very impressive sight!.
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