Strong/Severe Storms in Thursday Outlook

 
UPDATE: Tue 22 Feb 2010 / 5:50p.m.

Model trends though Tuesday afternoon support the slight northward and eastward shift of the severe potential. SPC has Texoma on the edge of a larger area of severe storm potential located mainly to our east, with Arkansas at a 30% risk while Texoma is at 5% west to15% east.

One key factor will be how fast the dry line and mid-level trough move by Thursday. Latest indications are for a slightly faster movement which matches up with a higher severe threat to our east.

 

 ==================Monday discussion below

 

Our first round of strong to severe thunderstorms in 2011 may take place this Thursday (Feb 24th).

 

 It’s a rather ”typical" set up for strong to severe storms:

 

 

  • A plume of moisture moving northward from the Gulf
  • A cold front moving in from the NW, with a dry line preceding it by a few hours
  • A mid-level low coming in from the west (provides more lifting)
  • Low-level wind shear (promotes rotation in thunderstorms)
  • Jet max: Another source for producing stronger updrafts

 


Of course there are uncertainties including:


 Timing: if system passes earlier in the day, heating would be limited, reducing the instability of the air


 Mid-level low: It is indicated to be weakening as it moves through Oklahoma Thursday, with an axis extending southward into Texas. If this trough weakens more than expected, this would also reduce severe potential. A northward shift in the track would also lower severe chances here.


 Surface low: Will be the "triple point" where cold front and dry line meet; latest indications carry this low about 100 miles to our north. This track is less favorable for widespread severe in Texoma.


 Jet max: Enhanced lifting tends to be close to the feature, so its location will partially govern where the strongest storms form (discussion continues below map).


 

Latest thoughts:

 Monday evening model trends are rather consistent with runs from Monday morning, but the wind field is coming in a bit weaker on the southern side of the system (the side nearest to us). The surface low is also indicated to track to our north (see map above).

The most likely result from these factors would place the stronger storms over the eastern half of Texoma (east of Highway 377) Thursday afternoon along the dry line, with lower storm chances further west. If the surface low tracks along the Red River, we'd get a lot more rough weather but right now that does not look as likely.

 So the risk looks definite but slight for severe storms, with a pretty decent chance of rain in any case.

I will post a new blog as a final update to this thread Wednesday before 6p.m.

 Take Care,

 Steve LaNore

 Chief Meteorologist

 KXII-TV

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Read More Blogs
Comments are posted from viewers like you and do not always reflect the views of this station.
powered by Disqus
Sherman 4201 Texoma Pkwy (903) 892 -8123 Ardmore 2624 S. Commerce (580) 223-0946
Copyright © 2002-2014 - Designed by Gray Digital Media - Powered by Clickability
Gray Television, Inc.