Severe Weather 2012: Texoma's good fortune, and some tornado numbers

Texoma is enjoying its quietest severe weather season since 2005. This contrasts nicely with the violent weather we've seen during the past few springs.

Major tornadoes raked the DFW Metroplex on April 3 of this year, and northwestern Oklahoma endured a rash of tornadoes April 14. By contrast, Texoma has seen very little severe weather and no tornadoes this year.

In fact, despite the two April outbreaks, and a big one March 3, the national tornado count will be near average by the end of May.  A few bullet points:

  • May 2012 has been a fairly “quiet” month nationally with the twister count at less than 1/2 of the long-term May average through May 21.
  • The overall tornado count YTD is still about 100 twisters above average, but nowhere near where we were a year ago, or during the record 2008 tornado season.
  • Given the current trends, the 2012 tornado count might fall below the long-term average in early June.
  • Fewer than 400 tornadoes were logged nationally through May 21 of 2005.

Will our good fortune in Texoma continue? It’s impossible to say for sure, and it only takes one tornado to make a catastrophe. However, the overall pattern does not favor a major outbreak in the near future. An upper level ridge is deflecting the jet stream well to the north, and this pattern should continue through at least Memorial Day.

More good news: severe weather potential tends to drop rapidly in June each year as the jet retreats northward. A tornado can occur in any month but it seems Texoma has avoided any major events during severe weather season 2012.

In closing, let me caution you to please never ignore weather warnings. A little inconvenience during a violent storm or flood may pay off big-time in keeping you and others safe.

Take Care,

Steve LaNore

Chief Meteorologist

KXII-TV

 

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