UPDATE: Tue 20 Nov 2012 / 10 p.m.
This is the final update with no significant change to the forecasts of the past few days. There's a quick shot of rain possible between 9 p.m. Thanksgiving night and about 6 a.m. Friday morning; otherwise it should be a rain-free Holiday weekend with warm and windy weather Thursday and much cooler weather Friday evening and Saturday. Happy Thanksgiving!
UPDATE: Mon 19 Nov 2012 / 5:30 p.m.
The forecast remains the same as I've been posting since late last week: Thanksgiving should be a rather windy day with mostly cloudy and mild conditions.
There's the potential for some rain mainly late Thursday and into early Friday as a front and trough pass through. Sunny and cooler weather is on tap for Friday afternoon and Saturday.
If you are traveling Wednesday, conditions should be excellent for driving throughout Oklahoma and Texas, and eastward well into the southern U.S.
The dashed white line shows a trough passing through on Thu-Fri, but it's a weak system and rainfall should be rather limited.
UPDATE: Sun 18 Nov 2012 / 8:30 p.m.
There's basically no change to my Thanksgiving outlook of cloudy, breezy weather with a only a slight chance of rain and highs in the low 70s...not bad!
UPDATE: Fri 16 Nov 2012 / 5:50 p.m.
Today's Thanksgiving outlook is in line with yesterday's: mostly cloudy, breezy and mild with a chance of rain, but at this point the rain event looks to be in the 20-30% range. I will post another update over the weekend. Hope you have a great one - Steve
UPDATE: Thu 15 Nov 2012 / 5:30 p.m.
The forecast is looking less rosy than this time yesterday thanks to a weak steering flow developing next week, but it's far from a wash-out.
Both the GFS and ECMWF models depict a system coming through Mon-Tue with some chance of rain; what's new today is return Gulf flow coming in more quickly behind the rather feeble early-week system - the winds behind it just won't dry us out for very long.
In my original post, it looked like the rain might wait until Black Friday, but now I must include some chance of rain on Thanksgiving Day too. Right now the overall lift available with this system is indicated to be rather weak, so my forecast is for mostly cloudy and mild with a 20% chance of rain on Thanksgiving Day. So the trend is for more clouds and perhaps some rain but there's still a lot of uncertainty.
Weak weather systems are the most difficult ones to track, especially several days out.
Please stay tuned for a fresh update Friday evening.
The latest pattern trends suggest enough moisture may be present on Thanksgiving Day for clouds and some chance of rain.
Thanksgiving is just about a week away, and if you figure that many will be on the road to see family next Wednesday, we are already within a week of Holiday travel.
So this is a good time to take a look at what our Thanksgiving weather might be like across Texoma and within 100 miles or so.
The pattern for next week looks to be a bit warmer than this week, but a bubble of high pressure is expected to move in just to provide dry driving conditions mid-week.
A trough comes through Monday-Tuesday with rain expected, but if the timing holds then dry air and quiet weather would replace that for Wednesday and Thanksgiving Day. Temperatures are expected to be seasonably cool with lows in the 30s and highs in the 60s to possibly low 70s.
So, hopefully it won’t get too hot in the kitchen!
The weather may change by “Black Friday” as gusty winds kick in from the south and it looks like rain is possible Friday, but with greater potential for rain on Saturday.
The upper-air pattern looks rather consistent in its movement, so I’m fairly confident at this point we won’t have rain for Wednesday or Thanksgiving Day. This will become a lot clearer by Friday and Saturday as we get a better handle on systems coming our way from the Pacific.
This blog will be updated Thursday night. Stay tuned!