FINAL UPDATE: 5:40p.m. Wed 24 Nov 2010
Really, no major changes to outlook of past two days. Rain and thunderstorms will form especially east of I-35 early Thanksgiving morning and advance eastward during the day. It will be windy and cold for everybody. Hard freezes with lows in the low to mid 20s are expected for Texoma Friday and Saturday morning.
Southerly winds will bring a brief warming trend Saturday afternoon-Monday, but will be cut short by another fairly chilly air mass moving in.
Have a wonderful Holiday weekend! - Steve
UPDATE: Tue 23 Nov 2010 / 3:45p.m.
No changes to the outlook: rain will end wet to east Thanksgiving Day. Areas further west MAY see some sunshine by afternoon...this is less likely the further east you go. It will be windy and cold for everybody. No ice or snow is expected.
A hard freeze will occur Friday and Saturday morning. A final update will be posted by 6pm Wednesday.
Rainfall pattern (circled) remains consistent in the computer output.
The actual weather pattern also supports the forecast. This map for 6pm Thursday.
UPDATE: Mon 22 Nov 2010 / 2:10p.m.
(discussion below map)
The trend for a cold Thanksgiving continues, but the trough is slowing down. This means rain (circled above) is more likely compared to last week's thoughts. This is exactly why I caution the reader against excessive trust in a forecast more than two or three days out. I mentioned in my Friday post the fear of "wrap around' clouds if the trough slowed down.
Well it looks like this trough is hitting the brakes extra hard, so the pattern is pointing toward cloudy, windy and cold with a chance of rain for Thanksgiving Day 2010. Rain odds will be higher over the eastern half of Texoma.
Bear in mind that a slight speed change will make the difference between windy and cold and the potential for rainy, windy and cold. Therefore, stay tuned for another update tomorrow!
UPDATE: Fri 19 Nov 2010 / 11:10a.m.
The models remain rock solid in their prediction of a cold and Thanksgiving, with the deep upper trough to our east by then. It looks like highs in the 40s with lows in the 20s are in the offing. We're still a couple days away from a high-confidence forecast, but based on four days of consistency and on the current weather pattern, I'm moderately confident of this outlook.
My main doubts revolve around sky cover. 'Wrap around" clouds could make for an even colder Thanksgiving if the trough slows down or digs further west than expected. Stay tuned!
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