Thanksgiving Weather UPDATED Nov 24th

 

FINAL UPDATE: 5:40p.m. Wed 24 Nov 2010

Really, no major changes to outlook of past two days. Rain and thunderstorms will form especially east of I-35 early Thanksgiving morning and advance eastward during the day. It will be windy and cold for everybody. Hard freezes with lows in the low to mid 20s are expected for Texoma Friday and Saturday morning.

Southerly winds will bring a brief warming trend Saturday afternoon-Monday, but will be cut short by another fairly chilly air mass moving in.

Have a wonderful Holiday weekend! - Steve

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UPDATE: Tue 23 Nov 2010 / 3:45p.m.

No changes to the outlook: rain will end wet to east Thanksgiving Day. Areas further west MAY see some sunshine by afternoon...this is less likely the further east you go. It will be windy and cold for everybody. No ice or snow is expected.

A hard freeze will occur Friday and Saturday morning. A final update will be posted by 6pm Wednesday.

Rainfall pattern (circled) remains consistent in the computer output.

The actual weather pattern also supports the forecast. This map for 6pm Thursday.

 

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UPDATE: Mon 22 Nov 2010 / 2:10p.m.

(discussion below map)

The trend for a cold Thanksgiving continues, but the trough is slowing down. This means rain (circled above) is more likely compared to last week's thoughts. This is exactly why I caution the reader against excessive trust in a forecast more than two or three days out. I mentioned in my Friday post the fear of "wrap around' clouds if the trough slowed down.

Well it looks like this trough is hitting the brakes extra hard, so the pattern is pointing toward cloudy, windy and cold with a chance of rain for Thanksgiving Day 2010. Rain odds will be higher over the eastern half of Texoma.

Bear in mind that a slight speed change will make the difference between windy and cold and the potential for rainy, windy and cold. Therefore, stay tuned for another update tomorrow!

 

===============FRIDAY DISCUSSION==================

UPDATE: Fri 19 Nov 2010 / 11:10a.m.

The models remain rock solid in their prediction of a cold and Thanksgiving, with the deep upper trough to our east by then. It looks like highs in the 40s with lows in the 20s are in the offing. We're still a couple days away from a high-confidence forecast, but based on four days of consistency and on the current weather pattern, I'm moderately confident of this outlook.

My main doubts revolve around sky cover. 'Wrap around" clouds could make for an even colder Thanksgiving if the trough slows down or digs further west than expected. Stay tuned!

  ++++++++ Thu 18 Nov  Discussion=============

 
The models are in quite good agreement today on a rather cold but dry Thanksgiving. This is a continuation of the trend identified on Wednesday, Nov 17th.
 
I will leave the older posts underneath as we track the evolution of this Holiday weather!
 
 
Latest steering winds flow shows trough (dashed blue line) to our east Thanksgiving Day, which means sinking air and very little chance of precipitation. However, it will be cold and possibly windy with highs 45-50. Freezes are likely if this comes to pass Thursday and/or Friday morning.
 
 
===============Nov 17th post below=================================
 
 
It seems weather rumors always pick up around the Holidays. Right now I’m hearing good folks on the street saying “It’s going to snow on Thanksgiving”. I’d like to know where this “forecast” is coming from!
 
Thanksgiving snow could happen, but to say so a week out is 80% hope and 20% science.
 
So, let's talk about the science: the models have begun trending an arctic cold front further south by the middle of next week. This is a departure from the model output of a few days ago. But we’re still too far away to trust this, or know its intensity. The scenario may flip-flop easily enough.
 
Sometimes I've been able to forecast such a front out 5-6 days with reasonable confidence.  The upper air pattern in those situations evolved in a very consistent way between models, and fit well with the climatology of such events. The upper air pattern is not so cut-and-dry.yet.
 
The newest forecast output (Wednesday evening) is zeroing more toward the colder version. This doesn’t mean it’s going to snow. It only means the outlook for colder temperatures around Thanksgiving is looking more probable than a few days ago. This is reflected on the steering winds forecast for Thanksgiving Eve:
  
If this trend of better agreement continues into the weekend then we will be in a position to have decent confidence on the temperature portion of the forecast.
 
 
As for snow, you won’t catch me putting it on my 7-day forecast more than 3 or 4 days out. There are just too many things that can go wrong here. After all, we’re not in Minnesota, are we? -:)
 
I will update this blog every day or two until the middle of next week.
 
Have a great weekend!
 
Take Care,
 
Steve LaNore
Chief Meteorologist
KXII-TV 
 

 

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