Thursday: Rain, Wintry Mix, Cold!

UPDATE: Wed 19 Jan 2011 / 9:20p.m.

No significant changes to forecast reasoning. There will be a mixture of light snow and freezing rain north to mostly sleet and freezing rain further south. The trough axis passes during the afternoon, ending all precipitation before sunset. In fact, clouds may break some over the western half of our area during the afternoon. If this happens it will quickly melt any ice on roads in those areas.

Water equivalents will be less than a tenth of an inch in most cases, which means perhaps an inch of snow over the northern half of Texoma and a few hundredths of an inch of ice further south.

Of course, very little ice is need to cause some real headaches, so please use extreme caution when traveling around Texoma Thursday.

 

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A fairly chilly batch of air will slide southward our of central Canada and push a frontal boundary through on Thursday.

Meanwhile, a fairly strong mid-level trough will  move overhead, providing lift and cooling aloft. Meanwhile, southerly winds return at the surface Wednesday, boosting low-level moisture levels.

  Steering winds flow (500mb)Thursday 6am: dashed blue line shows trough / ECMWF model

All of these points to a pretty high rain chance Thursday. If the cold air arrives in time, some sleet or snow may mix in. Some accumulating snow is possible over the northern tier of Texoma counties, but at this time the majority of our area would just get gusty winds and cold rain.

Sunshine returns Friday with very cold morning lows. A "wavy" NW flow aloft will bring several more troughs our way, keeping the pattern rather unsettled into next week (above map).

An update blog will be posted Wednesday evening regarding the Thursday winter weather potential.

Take Care,

Steve LaNore

Chief Meteorologist

KXII-TV

 

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  • by Steve LaNore Location: KXII-TV on Jan 20, 2011 at 02:17 PM
    James, of course the snow pack can influence our temperatures, more so with fast-moving cold air masses like the one Thursday, since they have less time to modify once they leave the snow areas. The snowpack over Kansas and northern Oklahoma will disappear by Saturday as highs get into the 40s. So I'm not expecting a big contribution from that, and with very little new snow expected over these areas in the coming days, the cold will primarily be a function of low-level winds, evaporative cooling with any precipitation, and cloud cover. Stay warm -- Steve
  • by James H Location: Ladonia on Jan 20, 2011 at 08:01 AM
    ya sun/mon/tues just came out of nowhere. Steve if we have a good amount of snow pack to our north do you think it will make our temps alittle colder for next week?
  • by Brandon on Jan 19, 2011 at 08:21 PM
    Yup, Euro, has been pretty much on the money... it hit the bigger storm we had last time almost perfect! I'm still a little confused of how things will pan out sun/mon/tue, I'll hopefully post my thoughts later. Take care.
  • by Steve LaNore Location: KXII-TV on Jan 19, 2011 at 02:38 PM
    Unstable flow next week with several cold troughs suggests more rain/snow potential...I have a mix in both Sunday and Monday outlooks. ECMWF trending colder and this model has given four star performance as of late! Take Care, Steve
  • by James H Location: Ladonia on Jan 19, 2011 at 12:20 PM
    Brandon,, I see the same thing but I think it may get below freezing before 11 or 12 tomorrow. I just dont know how things are going to pan out everything has to meet just right but I do see road conditions along the red river counties becoming dangerous by late afternoon. I am really getting excited about the storm for next week. looks to me like steve is going to be busy with that one:) ( STEVE IS THE MAN!!)
  • by Brandon on Jan 18, 2011 at 08:58 PM
    Am I misreading? Looks like 18Z GFS run from 1/8/11 has temperatures near 28-29 in Sherman with moderate sleet precip on Thu? Temperatures falling to near 31 by noon or so? Maybe you can help me with what I'm seeing (or correct me?)
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